After an unscheduled bye week, we're back in action. Sorry for the tardiness, but I hope you were able to enjoy the last full weekend of Big 12 action. We'll touch on a few of the key storylines that emerged last Saturday as we dive into this weekend's matchups. With just two regular season games remaining for most teams, things are coming down to the wire as the bowl picture begins to take shape.
Going Bowling
There are currently seven Big 12 teams that are bowl eligible with a minimum of six wins: Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas State in the North, and Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Baylor out of the South. Four other programs still have a chance to reach this benchmark: Texas Tech wraps up its season against two nonconference foes -- the FCS's Weber State and Houston -- needing just one more victory; Iowa State needs a win at home over Missouri to clinch its sixth win; Colorado must knock off visiting K-State this weekend and then Nebraska in Lincoln next Friday; and Texas must win out in Austin over Florida Atlantic Saturday and Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night.
All of those scenarios are still within reach and would give the Big 12 an unprecedented 11 bowl-eligible teams. If they were to each succeed, at least one team -- and possibly two or three -- could be left watching the postseason action on TV like many of us. The conference has contractual agreements with eight postseason bowls, including the BCS Fiesta Bowl, which automatically receives the Big 12 Championship Game winner unless that team advances to the BCS Championship Game -- as Texas did last year. You may find it hard to believe, but there simply aren't enough bowls to accommodate 11 qualifiers from a single conference, since every bowl has set agreements with the various conferences to host their respective teams. Unless one or more of the other conferences fails to provide enough teams to fulfill the agreements, someone in the Big 12 gets left at home. (One possible hope -- the Pac 10 currently has just three bowl-qualified teams because of USC's ineligibility.)
With that said, it could be an absolute disaster for the Big 12 as a whole if the Texas Longhorns were to win their last two games and qualify for the postseason -- even if Iowa State and Colorado fail to do so.
Sure, Texas is down this year, and you'd probably assume that with a 6-6 record only a lower-tier bowl would be in line to receive the Longhorns anyway, especially after losses to Iowa State, Kansas State and Baylor. But the major conferences allow the individual bowl games to choose their invitees according to a pre-determined order. The Big 12's order of selection looks like this (opponent conferences in parentheses):
1. BCS Tostitos Fiesta -- Glendale, Ariz.
2. AT&T Cotton (SEC) -- Arlington, Texas
3. Valero Alamo (Pac-10) -- San Antonio, Texas
4. Insight (Big Ten) -- Tempe, Ariz.
5. Bridgepoint Holiday (Pac-10) -- San Diego, Calif.
6. Texas (Big Ten) -- Houston, Texas
7. New Era Pinstripe (Big East) -- New York, N.Y.
8. TicketCity Bowl (Big Ten/ACC) -- Dallas, Texas
So let's say Texas and Texas Tech are the only remaining nonqualified teams to reach six wins. What's to stop, say, the Holiday Bowl from choosing the Longhorns? What, their fans don't travel? They do -- in hordes. They wouldn't draw an opponents' fan base? Nonsense. Every Pac 10 backer would relish an opportunity to take down the Longhorns, even if they're not that good. No, Texas would go to San Diego. The only thing that would keep them from doing so would be if the Alamo or Insight bowls were to select them first.
Such a selection would knock every other qualifying Big 12 team down one rung -- both in bowl stature and in the resulting payout. Ask Missouri -- it can and does happen. Even with only nine qualifiers, a bowl-eligible Texas means at least one other team is on the outside looking in with no agreement in hand. Who knows? Maybe Texas scores the upset and knocks off a higher-ranked bowl foe. But it's more likely that the Longhorns finish the year 6-7, having already cost Baylor -- a team that knocked off the Longhorns -- or a possibly 7-5 Texas Tech the chance at a larger prize. Heading into a 10-team league in 2011, this is the perfect opportunity for the rest of the conference to show that Texas is not the lone standard-bearer. But a high pick for the Longhorns would create a dangerous axiom: To the barely qualified with the largest fan base go the spoils.
Week 12
Oklahoma State (9-1, 5-1) at Kansas (3-7, 1-5) -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- The Pokes have a pretty simple route to the Big 12 Championship Game: win two. Kansas is first up, and the Jayhawks could be in for a long afternoon against this high-octane juggernaut offense. The second game comes next week against Oklahoma. Are the Cowboys peeking ahead? Not a wise idea against a team that scored 35 unanswered points in the final 11 minutes against Colorado two weeks again for a jaw-dropping comeback that got Dan Hawkins fired once and for all. But the Cowboys have shown the ability to absorb points and still come out on top. Kansas hasn't shown the ability to score points every week.
Kansas State (6-4, 3-4) at Colorado (4-6, 1-5) -- 1 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- Colorado's new interim coach, former player and longtime assistant Brian Cabral, picked up a win in his debut with this past Saturday's takedown of Iowa State. The Buffaloes showed a lot of fire on both sides of the ball as Rodney Stewart carried 36 times for 123 yards and the defense recorded eight sacks. This game could be a brawl between two very physical, hard-running teams. Colorado needs it to keep those bowl hopes alive, and K-State needs to make a statement to prospective bowl destinations, and to avoid a two-game slide to end conference play.
Weber State (FCS -- 6-4, 5-3) at Texas Tech (5-5, 3-5) -- 2 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- This is Tech's obligatory nonconfernce game versus an inferior opponent. The only difference is that this one's at the end of the season rather than the beginning like most teams. Though the Red Raiders shouldn't have any trouble with the Wildcats, I doubt very much that Tommy Tuberville wants to mess around with them. This could be a big game for Baron Batch on the ground -- he ran for 91 against the Sooners in last weekend's loss in Norman. But the passing game needs to get back on track quickly for Tech, as both Taylor Potts and Steven Sheffield have been alarmingly inconsistent in pressure situations.
Florida Atlantic (4-5, 3-3) at Texas (4-6, 2-5) -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN Plus -- Texas has dropped four straight games at home for the first time since 1956's 1-9 team, which happened to be the worst in school history. This team's not THAT bad, but it's not pretty, either. The Longhorns need a confidence-builder here as they prepare for the regular-season finale against Texas A&M. But losing four in a row and six out of seven can create a damaged mind-set that's difficult to repair. And it's one that's likely to persist unless it can be repaired quickly with big plays all around. Look for Texas to come into this game amped up -- its season is literally on the line.
Missouri (8-2, 4-2) at Iowa State (5-6, 3-4) -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- Iowa State's hopes in this game took a big hit when QB Austen Arnaud went down in the fourth quarter against Colorado and was ultimately lost for the season. However, backup Jerome Tiller has seen some significant action in the past, having actually helmed the Cyclones' win in Lincoln last year. He'll need every ounce of ability versus the Tigers, who absolutely took over in last weekend's showdown with Kansas State in Columbia to end their two-game slide. This is a big game for Blaine Gabbert, whose confidence was visibly down after losses on the road to Nebraska and Texas Tech. If he can regain some of that Oklahoma-game form, Mizzou could end Iowa State's season in short order.
Oklahoma (8-2, 4-2) at Baylor (7-4, 4-3) -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN 2 -- Half of an intriguing nightcap. Baylor's regular-season finale is an opportunity for the Bears to accomplish something they never have: beating Oklahoma. The Sooners hold a 19-0 all-time edge. The question here for each team is which team shows up. They both are capable of playing lights-out football, but they're both equally capable of watching an opponent take control, especially if that opponent happens to be Texas A&M. The Aggies shut out Oklahoma in the first half of a 33-19 win two weeks ago, then followed that up by shutting out the Bears in the second half of last week's 42-30 Aggie triumph. So who shows up to play? Oklahoma needs this win to force a de facto playoff with Oklahoma State in next weekend's Bedlam showdown. A loss coupled with a Pokes' win hands the Cowboys the South crown.
Nebraska (9-1, 5-1) at Texas A&M (7-3, 4-2) -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- The other half of the nightcap. (Why put the two best games on against each other, Dan Beebe?) Nebraska's undefeated on the road this season, but the Aggies are a hot team right now, and are positioning themselves for a very strong finish. Taylor Martinez is back under center for the Cornhuskers but looked less than impressive against Kansas in last weekend's 20-3 win. The Big Red will need him back in midseason form if they want to seize the momentum away from the 12th Man crowd at Kyle Field. And Ryan Tannehill has been virtually unstoppable at quarterback since coach Mike Sherman made the change by benching Jerrod Johnson. It was certainly a gamble on Sherman's part, but it's paid off so far.
Enjoy the weekend!
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