Friday, November 26, 2010

First Look -- Week 13 (Thursday, Nov. 25 to Saturday, Nov. 27)

A Feast of Football

After the plates are cleared away from yet another scrumptious Thanksgiving, it's time to look ahead to what is arguably one of the greatest weekends in college football. It began Thursday night with Texas A&M's 24-17 defeat of Texas -- which means that for the first time since 1997 the Longhorns won't be making a bowl appearance -- and it continues all day Friday and through Saturday evening. Wall-to-wall football is on the menu for your viewing and listening pleasure. Many of these games are of the rivalry variety, which builds a level of interest and intensity that is unparalleled by any other portion of the college football schedule. Even the bowl season does not provide as much anticipation, excitement, hatred, heartbreak, joy, relief and pure passion as this final weekend of November -- when most teams across the nation wind down their regular seasons with these final opportunities to prove their mettle on the gridiron. It's going to be awesome.

So for a change, we'll take a look outside of the Big 12 to help you follow the action on tap over this long holiday weekend.

Key Games Worth a Look (all times Central; TV listings if nationally televised)


Friday

West Virginia at Pittsburgh -- 11 a.m. CT on ABC -- Headed into the "Backyard Brawl," the Panthers are in the driver's seat for the Big East title and a berth in the Fiesta Bowl against the Big 12 champion. A Mountaineers' win gives them a shot at the title heading into next week's finale (see Connecticut below), but no guarantees.

Auburn at Alabama -- 1:30 p.m. CT on CBS -- This is No. 2 Auburn's final regular season game: an Iron Bowl matchup with archrival Alabama. Auburn is already slated for a rematch with South Carolina in next weekend's SEC Championship, and can't afford to slip up here. A loss by the Tigers creates opportunity for either Boise State or TCU.

UCLA at Arizona State -- 2:30 p.m. CT on FSN -- The Pac-10 is hurting for bowl-eligible teams -- only three are eligible at present (USC would qualify, but it is barred by sanctions). Each of these teams enter the game 4-6. The winner gets only the opportunity to play for a bowl appearance in next week's season finale. The loser watches its bowl hopes disappear.

Arizona at Oregon -- 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPN -- No. 1 Oregon faces its last ranked opponent of the season before next week's "Civil War" showdown with Oregon State. Can Arizona hang with the Ducks? Cal gave Oregon its toughest game so far in a 15-13 slugfest. Arizona prevailed similarly over the Bears 10-9 back in September. Should be interesting to watch.

Boise State at Nevada -- 9:15 p.m. CT on ESPN -- The Broncos face their final real test of the regular season against a ranked Wolfpack. Nevada has the offensive weapons to threaten Boise State, but can its defense hang in there? A loss earlier in the day by Auburn could alter the national championship picture and impact the urgency of this late game. Boise concludes its season next week against Utah State.

Saturday

Cincinnati at Connecticut -- 11 a.m. CT; check local listings -- This game is relevant only if West Virgina prevails over Pitt on Friday. If that were to happen, the Huskies would be playing for the lead in the Big East standings by virtue of victories over both the Panthers and Mountaineers. If Pitt wins, the Huskies must win here and hope the Panthers stumble against Cincy next week. UConn still must face South Florida next Saturday, while West Virginia meets Rutgers.

Michigan State at Penn State -- 11 a.m. CT on ESPN 2 -- The surprising Spartans
close out their season in Happy Valley. A three-way tie atop the Big Ten standings means a Rose Bowl berth is likely on the line Saturday. The Spartans need a win and an Ohio State loss to secure a spot.

Michigan at Ohio State -- 11 a.m. CT on ABC -- The BCS takes only two teams per conference, so one of the Big Ten's co-leaders will be left out if the three-way tie endures the weekend. In the event of a three-way tie or a Michigan State-Ohio State tie, the highest ranked team in the final BCS standings will head to the Rose Bowl. Losses by both Michigan State and Wisconsin would open the door for the Buckeyes.

Northwestern at Wisconsin -- 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC/ESPN -- The Badgers are ranked seventh, the Buckeyes are eighth, and the Spartans are 10th in the most recent BCS poll. Wisconsin could use a solid win over the Wildcats to avoid being jumped in the rankings. But the Badgers also need Ohio State to win: If Wisconsin and Michigan State prevail but Ohio State loses, Michigan State goes to Pasadena because it beat Wisconsin.

LSU at Arkansas (in Little Rock) -- 2:30 CT on CBS -- Always an interesting game, and a classic meeting this season between Arkansas' high-powered offense and LSU's vaunted defense.

TCU at New Mexico -- 3 p.m. CT on CSTV -- This matchup is really only significant if losses occur earlier among the other top teams. The Lobos are a pitiful 1-10, and TCU has every reason to pour it on to try to make something happen in the computer rankings. Things could get ugly in Albuquerque.

Some other games of note:
Virginia at Virginia Tech -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday
South Florida at Miami -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday
Indiana at Purdue -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday
Kentucky at Tennessee -- 11:21 a.m. CT Saturday
BYU at Utah -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday
Florida at Florida State -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday
North Carolina at Duke -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday
South Carolina at Clemson -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday
Mississippi State at Mississippi -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday
Oregon State at Stanford -- 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday
Georgia Tech at Georgia -- 6:45 p.m. CT Saturday
Notre Dame at USC -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday


Week 13

Colorado at Nebraska -- 2:30 p.m. CT Friday on ABC -- Nebraska needs a win to secure the Big 12 North title. But the Buffaloes are a motivated opponent having won two straight since the firing of Dan Hawkins. Colorado needs one win to become bowl eligible. While the Buffaloes would be the ninth Big 12 team to qualify for the postseason -- one team beyond the conference's contractual agreements -- they could benefit from the Pac-10's shortfall, and possibly find themselves playing in one of the Pac-10's vacant bowl spots. Colorado RB Rodney Stewart has carried 70 times for 318 yards in the last two games, but he has yet to face a defense like the Huskers. Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez is still a question mark with a bum ankle. Without him, the Big Red becomes a much more one-dimensional outfit. But Colorado has lost 12 consecutive Big 12 road games.

Kansas vs. Missouri (in Kansas City) -- 11:30 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- A Nebraska loss on Friday puts all the pressure on the Tigers on Saturday. Mizzou would be playing for its third North title in four seasons. The Jayhawks have had a disappointing season, no question. But records and reality mean little in a rivalry like this one -- the oldest west of the Mississippi River, and the second-oldest on either side of it. Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert has the ability to shred opposing defenses, but Kansas has also shown some fight of late, even in defeat.

Kansas State at North Texas -- 3 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- The Wildcats could use a win to enhance their postseason resume -- not to mention snapping a two-game slide. They've also lost four out of their last five. The Mean Green have gone 2-2 since their fourth-year head coach was fired last month. North Texas' fate lies with RB Lance Dunbar and QB Riley Dodge, son of fired coach Todd Dodge, who have helped make the Mean Green's rushing offense the 24th-ranked unit in the country. The 'Cats had better not underestimate this road opponent, or a 6-6 season is in the offing.

Houston at Texas Tech -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN Southwest -- The Red Raiders probably began looking forward to this game when Cougars QB Case Keenum was lost for the season back in mid-September with a knee injury suffered in a loss to UCLA. Houston also lost Keenum's backup in the same game. However, The Cougars are still just one win away from their sixth-straight bowl appearance. Unfortunately, they'll face a Texas Tech team that vividly remembers last season's 29-28 upset to Houston. Tech ran its record to 6-5 last weekend, and would very much like to finish out the 2010 regular-season campaign on a high note.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC --  This is for all the marble in the Big 12 South. The winner heads to Cowboys Stadium next weekend for a shot at a BCS payday in the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma State has already achieved the school's first-ever 10-win season. A win over its Bedlam archrival would be the cherry on top of a remarkable season -- especially when so little was expected of the Cowboys coming into the year. Oklahoma has won seven straight in the series, but their defense has been suspect at times. And last week's win at Baylor was the Sooners lone win on the road in the Big 12 so far this season. Look for a back-and-forth of offensive firepower here, as each team possesses considerable talent at the skill positions: Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray and Ryan Broyles for OU; and Brandon Weeden, Kendall Hunter and Justin Blackmon for OSU.

What a way to end the 2010 regular season! Enjoy -- and Happy Thanksgiving!

Friday, November 19, 2010

First Look -- Week 12 (Saturday, Nov. 20)

After an unscheduled bye week, we're back in action. Sorry for the tardiness, but I hope you were able to enjoy the last full weekend of Big 12 action. We'll touch on a few of the key storylines that emerged last Saturday as we dive into this weekend's matchups. With just two regular season games remaining for most teams, things are coming down to the wire as the bowl picture begins to take shape.

Going Bowling

There are currently seven Big 12 teams that are bowl eligible with a minimum of six wins: Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas State in the North, and Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Baylor out of the South. Four other programs still have a chance to reach this benchmark: Texas Tech wraps up its season against two nonconference foes -- the FCS's Weber State and Houston -- needing just one more victory; Iowa State needs a win at home over Missouri to clinch its sixth win; Colorado must knock off visiting K-State this weekend and then Nebraska in Lincoln next Friday; and Texas must win out in Austin over Florida Atlantic Saturday and Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night.

All of those scenarios are still within reach and would give the Big 12 an unprecedented 11 bowl-eligible teams. If they were to each succeed, at least one team -- and possibly two or three -- could be left watching the postseason action on TV like many of us. The conference has contractual agreements with eight postseason bowls, including the BCS Fiesta Bowl, which automatically receives the Big 12 Championship Game winner unless that team advances to the BCS Championship Game -- as Texas did last year. You may find it hard to believe, but there simply aren't enough bowls to accommodate 11 qualifiers from a single conference, since every bowl has set agreements with the various conferences to host their respective teams. Unless one or more of the other conferences fails to provide enough teams to fulfill the agreements, someone in the Big 12 gets left at home. (One possible hope -- the Pac 10 currently has just three bowl-qualified teams because of USC's ineligibility.)

With that said, it could be an absolute disaster for the Big 12 as a whole if the Texas Longhorns were to win their last two games and qualify for the postseason -- even if Iowa State and Colorado fail to do so.

Sure, Texas is down this year, and you'd probably assume that with a 6-6 record only a lower-tier bowl would be in line to receive the Longhorns anyway, especially after losses to Iowa State, Kansas State and Baylor. But the major conferences allow the individual bowl games to choose their invitees according to a pre-determined order. The Big 12's order of selection looks like this (opponent conferences in parentheses):

1. BCS Tostitos Fiesta -- Glendale, Ariz.
2. AT&T Cotton (SEC) -- Arlington, Texas
3. Valero Alamo (Pac-10) -- San Antonio, Texas
4. Insight (Big Ten) -- Tempe, Ariz.
5. Bridgepoint Holiday (Pac-10) -- San Diego, Calif.
6. Texas (Big Ten) -- Houston, Texas
7. New Era Pinstripe (Big East) -- New York, N.Y.
8. TicketCity Bowl (Big Ten/ACC) -- Dallas, Texas

So let's say Texas and Texas Tech are the only remaining nonqualified teams to reach six wins. What's to stop, say, the Holiday Bowl from choosing the Longhorns? What, their fans don't travel? They do -- in hordes. They wouldn't draw an opponents' fan base? Nonsense. Every Pac 10 backer would relish an opportunity to take down the Longhorns, even if they're not that good. No, Texas would go to San Diego. The only thing that would keep them from doing so would be if the Alamo or Insight bowls were to select them first.

Such a selection would knock every other qualifying Big 12 team down one rung -- both in bowl stature and in the resulting payout. Ask Missouri -- it can and does happen. Even with only nine qualifiers, a bowl-eligible Texas means at least one other team is on the outside looking in with no agreement in hand. Who knows? Maybe Texas scores the upset and knocks off a higher-ranked bowl foe. But it's more likely that the Longhorns finish the year 6-7, having already cost Baylor -- a team that knocked off the Longhorns -- or a possibly 7-5 Texas Tech the chance at a larger prize. Heading into a 10-team league in 2011, this is the perfect opportunity for the rest of the conference to show that Texas is not the lone standard-bearer. But a high pick for the Longhorns would create a dangerous axiom: To the barely qualified with the largest fan base go the spoils.

Week 12

Oklahoma State (9-1, 5-1) at Kansas (3-7, 1-5) -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- The Pokes have a pretty simple route to the Big 12 Championship Game: win two. Kansas is first up, and the Jayhawks could be in for a long afternoon against this high-octane juggernaut offense. The second game comes next week against Oklahoma. Are the Cowboys peeking ahead? Not a wise idea against a team that scored 35 unanswered points in the final 11 minutes against Colorado two weeks again for a jaw-dropping comeback that got Dan Hawkins fired once and for all. But the Cowboys have shown the ability to absorb points and still come out on top. Kansas hasn't shown the ability to score points every week.

Kansas State (6-4, 3-4) at Colorado (4-6, 1-5) -- 1 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- Colorado's new interim coach, former player and longtime assistant Brian Cabral, picked up a win in his debut with this past Saturday's takedown of Iowa State. The Buffaloes showed a lot of fire on both sides of the ball as Rodney Stewart carried 36 times for 123 yards and the defense recorded eight sacks. This game could be a brawl between two very physical, hard-running teams. Colorado needs it to keep those bowl hopes alive, and K-State needs to make a statement to prospective bowl destinations, and to avoid a two-game slide to end conference play.

Weber State (FCS -- 6-4, 5-3) at Texas Tech (5-5, 3-5) -- 2 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- This is Tech's obligatory nonconfernce game versus an inferior opponent. The only difference is that this one's at the end of the season rather than the beginning like most teams. Though the Red Raiders shouldn't have any trouble with the Wildcats, I doubt very much that Tommy Tuberville wants to mess around with them. This could be a big game for Baron Batch on the ground -- he ran for 91 against the Sooners in last weekend's loss in Norman. But the passing game needs to get back on track quickly for Tech, as both Taylor  Potts and Steven Sheffield have been alarmingly inconsistent in pressure situations.

Florida Atlantic (4-5, 3-3) at Texas (4-6, 2-5) -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN Plus -- Texas has dropped four straight games at home for the first time since 1956's 1-9 team, which happened to be the worst in school history. This team's not THAT bad, but it's not pretty, either. The Longhorns need a confidence-builder here as they prepare for the regular-season finale against Texas A&M. But losing four in a row and six out of seven can create a damaged mind-set that's difficult to repair. And it's one that's likely to persist unless it can be repaired quickly with big plays all around. Look for Texas to come into this game amped up -- its season is literally on the line.

Missouri (8-2, 4-2) at Iowa State (5-6, 3-4) -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- Iowa State's hopes in this game took a big hit when QB Austen Arnaud went down in the fourth quarter against Colorado and was ultimately lost for the season. However, backup Jerome Tiller has seen some significant action in the past, having actually helmed the Cyclones' win in Lincoln last year.  He'll need every ounce of ability versus the Tigers, who absolutely took over in last weekend's showdown with Kansas State in Columbia to end their two-game slide. This is a big game for Blaine Gabbert, whose confidence was visibly down after losses on the road to Nebraska and Texas Tech. If he can regain some of that Oklahoma-game form, Mizzou could end Iowa State's season in short order.

Oklahoma (8-2, 4-2) at Baylor (7-4, 4-3) -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN 2 -- Half of an intriguing nightcap. Baylor's regular-season finale is an opportunity for the Bears to accomplish something they never have: beating Oklahoma. The Sooners hold a 19-0 all-time edge. The question here for each team is which team shows up. They both are capable of playing lights-out football, but they're both equally capable of watching an opponent take control, especially if that opponent happens to be Texas A&M. The Aggies shut out Oklahoma in the first half of a 33-19 win two weeks ago, then followed that up by shutting out the Bears in the second half of last week's 42-30 Aggie triumph. So who shows up to play? Oklahoma needs this win to force a de facto playoff with Oklahoma State in next weekend's Bedlam showdown. A loss coupled with a Pokes' win hands the Cowboys the South crown.

Nebraska (9-1, 5-1) at Texas A&M (7-3, 4-2) -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- The other half of the nightcap. (Why put the two best games on against each other, Dan Beebe?) Nebraska's undefeated on the road this season, but the Aggies are a hot team right now, and are positioning themselves for a very strong finish. Taylor Martinez is back under center for the Cornhuskers but looked less than impressive against Kansas in last weekend's 20-3 win. The Big Red will need him back in midseason form if they want to seize the momentum away from the 12th Man crowd at Kyle Field. And Ryan Tannehill has been virtually unstoppable at quarterback since coach Mike Sherman made the change by benching Jerrod Johnson. It was certainly a gamble on Sherman's part, but it's paid off so far.


Enjoy the weekend!

Thursday, November 4, 2010

First Look -- Week 10 (Saturday, Nov. 6)

Controlling Your Destiny

After last week's lengthy post on the conference standings at the midway point, I won't rehash a lot of the info included -- but please feel free to run through the remaining schedules listed there if you're so inclined.

However, it is worth noting at this point which teams still have a shot at making the Dec. 4 Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington's Cowboys Stadium without having to depend on the outcomes of other games. Some teams are certainly surprises this late in the season, and others were expected. First, let's take a look at the current standings:

BIG 12 STANDINGS
NORTH DIVISION
                         Big 12      All      
Nebraska           3-1          7-1      
Missouri             3-1          7-1      
Iowa State          3-2          5-4      
Kansas State     2-3          5-3      
Colorado            0-4          3-5      
Kansas              0-4          2-6   
     
SOUTH DIVISION
Baylor                   4-1         7-2      
Oklahoma            3-1         7-1      
Oklahoma State   3-1         7-1      
Texas A&M           2-2         5-3      
Texas                    2-3         4-4      
Texas Tech           2-4         4-4      


In the North -- Nebraska and Iowa State, alone, have the inside track to the Jerry Jones Dome. After this weekend, though, only one of these two teams will possess that advantage, since they meet in Ames on Saturday. Missouri is certainly still alive in the race and would benefit from any slip-up by the Big Red, and I'd put K-State in the "It would take a miracle" category.

In the South -- It's a similar race here as the top three teams -- Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State -- each have a path to the division title. Even more exciting, each of these teams must still play the other two in coming weeks, starting with Baylor's trip to Stillwater this Saturday. And believe it or not, Texas A&M is still very much alive in the race with two conference losses and upcoming contests against both Oklahoma (Saturday) and Baylor (Nov. 13), though the Aggies would need Oklahoma State to stumble.

Again, there are four Saturdays left, but it's always good to know what's on the line -- especially if you're still angling for that Baylor vs. Iowa State championship and its automatic BCS berth! Yep -- it's November, and I just said that. What a season it's been ...

Week 10

Baylor at Oklahoma State --11:30 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- The first of the South's deciding games should be as entertaining as it gets offensively. Both schools rank in the top 10 nationally in total yards and both like to sling the ball around. I'd say one advantage the Bears have is their defense, of all things. Baylor's given up 23.1 points per game, while the Pokes have yielded 28.5. But the game is in Stillwater, and Baylor is facing its second-consecutive road test. We'll discover right away whether Art Briles' team spent too much time celebrating its hard-fought win over Texas last week. The Cowboys also get WR Justin Blackmon back from suspension -- and they certainly missed him last week against Kansas State.

Colorado at Kansas -- 1 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- This may be the first time I concur that a game is better off not on TV. It could be ugly. It could also be KU's last chance at a conference win, though the Buffaloes are also winless in the Big 12. And ... well, there's not much else to say. This is a battle for the basement -- and a good reminder to test your smoke detectors there and elsewhere in the house ahead of the annual "fall back" to Standard Time from Daylight Saving Time early Sunday morning.

Nebraska at Iowa State -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- You wouldn't think to call this game the "deciding matchup" for the Big 12 North, but that's exactly what it is. The Cornhuskers roll into Ames for their last-ever meeting with the Cyclones as conference foes. Last year, Nebraska had more turnovers than points in a 9-7 loss in Lincoln that propelled Iowa State to a 6-6 record and a berth in the Insight Bowl (which it won against Minnesota). And State's QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson didn't even play in that game because of injury. Nebraska has been much more consistent -- and prolific -- on the road this season, but Iowa State has rejuvenated its season with back-to-back wins.

Oklahoma at Texas A&M -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- The Aggies walloped Texas Tech last week behind junior QB Ryan Tannehill, who got the start over senior Jerrod Johnson, who in turn was a dark horse Heisman candidate to begin the season, remember? Oklahoma pounced on A&M in the last meeting, building a 42-10 halftime lead with 28 unanswered points in the second quarter, and cruised to a 65-10 final score. This Sooners team, however, has been unable to close the door on most opponents. If Mike Sherman can keep his club within striking distance late in the game, the Aggies certainly have a shot to pull off the upset.

Texas at K-State -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN2 -- The Kansas State Wildcats are probably one of the last teams that Texas coach Mack Brown wants to see right now. Losers of four out of their last five ballgames, the Longhorns now face a 'Cats team that has beat them the last two times they've met and taken two out of three in Manhattan during Big 12 play. Talent-wise, Texas outmatches K-State at nearly every position, save running back. Brown essentially threw his coaches and players under the bus for being unprepared against Iowa State and Baylor, but a poor showing in this tough road game will fall squarely on his shoulders. 

Missouri at Texas Tech -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- Both losers last week, the Tigers and Red Raiders will get after it in Lubbock in this prime time tussle. Tommy Tuberville yanked QB Taylor Potts for Steven Sheffield last week in the A&M loss, so it'll be intriguing to see if Potts remains on a short leash in this start. Missouri needs a win here, of course, but the pressure of national title contention has been lifted from the players' minds, as well as from head coach Gary Pinkel. That should allow Mizzou to remain loose, and free to play its own game. But just as Nebraska pinned 24 points on the Tigers early, Tech is definitely capable of a similar ambush. And Jones AT&T Stadium can be an intimidating venue in the darkness of a West Texas night.

Enjoy the games!