Friday, November 26, 2010

First Look -- Week 13 (Thursday, Nov. 25 to Saturday, Nov. 27)

A Feast of Football

After the plates are cleared away from yet another scrumptious Thanksgiving, it's time to look ahead to what is arguably one of the greatest weekends in college football. It began Thursday night with Texas A&M's 24-17 defeat of Texas -- which means that for the first time since 1997 the Longhorns won't be making a bowl appearance -- and it continues all day Friday and through Saturday evening. Wall-to-wall football is on the menu for your viewing and listening pleasure. Many of these games are of the rivalry variety, which builds a level of interest and intensity that is unparalleled by any other portion of the college football schedule. Even the bowl season does not provide as much anticipation, excitement, hatred, heartbreak, joy, relief and pure passion as this final weekend of November -- when most teams across the nation wind down their regular seasons with these final opportunities to prove their mettle on the gridiron. It's going to be awesome.

So for a change, we'll take a look outside of the Big 12 to help you follow the action on tap over this long holiday weekend.

Key Games Worth a Look (all times Central; TV listings if nationally televised)


Friday

West Virginia at Pittsburgh -- 11 a.m. CT on ABC -- Headed into the "Backyard Brawl," the Panthers are in the driver's seat for the Big East title and a berth in the Fiesta Bowl against the Big 12 champion. A Mountaineers' win gives them a shot at the title heading into next week's finale (see Connecticut below), but no guarantees.

Auburn at Alabama -- 1:30 p.m. CT on CBS -- This is No. 2 Auburn's final regular season game: an Iron Bowl matchup with archrival Alabama. Auburn is already slated for a rematch with South Carolina in next weekend's SEC Championship, and can't afford to slip up here. A loss by the Tigers creates opportunity for either Boise State or TCU.

UCLA at Arizona State -- 2:30 p.m. CT on FSN -- The Pac-10 is hurting for bowl-eligible teams -- only three are eligible at present (USC would qualify, but it is barred by sanctions). Each of these teams enter the game 4-6. The winner gets only the opportunity to play for a bowl appearance in next week's season finale. The loser watches its bowl hopes disappear.

Arizona at Oregon -- 6:00 p.m. CT on ESPN -- No. 1 Oregon faces its last ranked opponent of the season before next week's "Civil War" showdown with Oregon State. Can Arizona hang with the Ducks? Cal gave Oregon its toughest game so far in a 15-13 slugfest. Arizona prevailed similarly over the Bears 10-9 back in September. Should be interesting to watch.

Boise State at Nevada -- 9:15 p.m. CT on ESPN -- The Broncos face their final real test of the regular season against a ranked Wolfpack. Nevada has the offensive weapons to threaten Boise State, but can its defense hang in there? A loss earlier in the day by Auburn could alter the national championship picture and impact the urgency of this late game. Boise concludes its season next week against Utah State.

Saturday

Cincinnati at Connecticut -- 11 a.m. CT; check local listings -- This game is relevant only if West Virgina prevails over Pitt on Friday. If that were to happen, the Huskies would be playing for the lead in the Big East standings by virtue of victories over both the Panthers and Mountaineers. If Pitt wins, the Huskies must win here and hope the Panthers stumble against Cincy next week. UConn still must face South Florida next Saturday, while West Virginia meets Rutgers.

Michigan State at Penn State -- 11 a.m. CT on ESPN 2 -- The surprising Spartans
close out their season in Happy Valley. A three-way tie atop the Big Ten standings means a Rose Bowl berth is likely on the line Saturday. The Spartans need a win and an Ohio State loss to secure a spot.

Michigan at Ohio State -- 11 a.m. CT on ABC -- The BCS takes only two teams per conference, so one of the Big Ten's co-leaders will be left out if the three-way tie endures the weekend. In the event of a three-way tie or a Michigan State-Ohio State tie, the highest ranked team in the final BCS standings will head to the Rose Bowl. Losses by both Michigan State and Wisconsin would open the door for the Buckeyes.

Northwestern at Wisconsin -- 2:30 p.m. CT on ABC/ESPN -- The Badgers are ranked seventh, the Buckeyes are eighth, and the Spartans are 10th in the most recent BCS poll. Wisconsin could use a solid win over the Wildcats to avoid being jumped in the rankings. But the Badgers also need Ohio State to win: If Wisconsin and Michigan State prevail but Ohio State loses, Michigan State goes to Pasadena because it beat Wisconsin.

LSU at Arkansas (in Little Rock) -- 2:30 CT on CBS -- Always an interesting game, and a classic meeting this season between Arkansas' high-powered offense and LSU's vaunted defense.

TCU at New Mexico -- 3 p.m. CT on CSTV -- This matchup is really only significant if losses occur earlier among the other top teams. The Lobos are a pitiful 1-10, and TCU has every reason to pour it on to try to make something happen in the computer rankings. Things could get ugly in Albuquerque.

Some other games of note:
Virginia at Virginia Tech -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday
South Florida at Miami -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday
Indiana at Purdue -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday
Kentucky at Tennessee -- 11:21 a.m. CT Saturday
BYU at Utah -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday
Florida at Florida State -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday
North Carolina at Duke -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday
South Carolina at Clemson -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday
Mississippi State at Mississippi -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday
Oregon State at Stanford -- 6:30 p.m. CT Saturday
Georgia Tech at Georgia -- 6:45 p.m. CT Saturday
Notre Dame at USC -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday


Week 13

Colorado at Nebraska -- 2:30 p.m. CT Friday on ABC -- Nebraska needs a win to secure the Big 12 North title. But the Buffaloes are a motivated opponent having won two straight since the firing of Dan Hawkins. Colorado needs one win to become bowl eligible. While the Buffaloes would be the ninth Big 12 team to qualify for the postseason -- one team beyond the conference's contractual agreements -- they could benefit from the Pac-10's shortfall, and possibly find themselves playing in one of the Pac-10's vacant bowl spots. Colorado RB Rodney Stewart has carried 70 times for 318 yards in the last two games, but he has yet to face a defense like the Huskers. Nebraska QB Taylor Martinez is still a question mark with a bum ankle. Without him, the Big Red becomes a much more one-dimensional outfit. But Colorado has lost 12 consecutive Big 12 road games.

Kansas vs. Missouri (in Kansas City) -- 11:30 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- A Nebraska loss on Friday puts all the pressure on the Tigers on Saturday. Mizzou would be playing for its third North title in four seasons. The Jayhawks have had a disappointing season, no question. But records and reality mean little in a rivalry like this one -- the oldest west of the Mississippi River, and the second-oldest on either side of it. Missouri QB Blaine Gabbert has the ability to shred opposing defenses, but Kansas has also shown some fight of late, even in defeat.

Kansas State at North Texas -- 3 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- The Wildcats could use a win to enhance their postseason resume -- not to mention snapping a two-game slide. They've also lost four out of their last five. The Mean Green have gone 2-2 since their fourth-year head coach was fired last month. North Texas' fate lies with RB Lance Dunbar and QB Riley Dodge, son of fired coach Todd Dodge, who have helped make the Mean Green's rushing offense the 24th-ranked unit in the country. The 'Cats had better not underestimate this road opponent, or a 6-6 season is in the offing.

Houston at Texas Tech -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN Southwest -- The Red Raiders probably began looking forward to this game when Cougars QB Case Keenum was lost for the season back in mid-September with a knee injury suffered in a loss to UCLA. Houston also lost Keenum's backup in the same game. However, The Cougars are still just one win away from their sixth-straight bowl appearance. Unfortunately, they'll face a Texas Tech team that vividly remembers last season's 29-28 upset to Houston. Tech ran its record to 6-5 last weekend, and would very much like to finish out the 2010 regular-season campaign on a high note.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC --  This is for all the marble in the Big 12 South. The winner heads to Cowboys Stadium next weekend for a shot at a BCS payday in the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma State has already achieved the school's first-ever 10-win season. A win over its Bedlam archrival would be the cherry on top of a remarkable season -- especially when so little was expected of the Cowboys coming into the year. Oklahoma has won seven straight in the series, but their defense has been suspect at times. And last week's win at Baylor was the Sooners lone win on the road in the Big 12 so far this season. Look for a back-and-forth of offensive firepower here, as each team possesses considerable talent at the skill positions: Landry Jones, DeMarco Murray and Ryan Broyles for OU; and Brandon Weeden, Kendall Hunter and Justin Blackmon for OSU.

What a way to end the 2010 regular season! Enjoy -- and Happy Thanksgiving!

Friday, November 19, 2010

First Look -- Week 12 (Saturday, Nov. 20)

After an unscheduled bye week, we're back in action. Sorry for the tardiness, but I hope you were able to enjoy the last full weekend of Big 12 action. We'll touch on a few of the key storylines that emerged last Saturday as we dive into this weekend's matchups. With just two regular season games remaining for most teams, things are coming down to the wire as the bowl picture begins to take shape.

Going Bowling

There are currently seven Big 12 teams that are bowl eligible with a minimum of six wins: Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas State in the North, and Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Baylor out of the South. Four other programs still have a chance to reach this benchmark: Texas Tech wraps up its season against two nonconference foes -- the FCS's Weber State and Houston -- needing just one more victory; Iowa State needs a win at home over Missouri to clinch its sixth win; Colorado must knock off visiting K-State this weekend and then Nebraska in Lincoln next Friday; and Texas must win out in Austin over Florida Atlantic Saturday and Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night.

All of those scenarios are still within reach and would give the Big 12 an unprecedented 11 bowl-eligible teams. If they were to each succeed, at least one team -- and possibly two or three -- could be left watching the postseason action on TV like many of us. The conference has contractual agreements with eight postseason bowls, including the BCS Fiesta Bowl, which automatically receives the Big 12 Championship Game winner unless that team advances to the BCS Championship Game -- as Texas did last year. You may find it hard to believe, but there simply aren't enough bowls to accommodate 11 qualifiers from a single conference, since every bowl has set agreements with the various conferences to host their respective teams. Unless one or more of the other conferences fails to provide enough teams to fulfill the agreements, someone in the Big 12 gets left at home. (One possible hope -- the Pac 10 currently has just three bowl-qualified teams because of USC's ineligibility.)

With that said, it could be an absolute disaster for the Big 12 as a whole if the Texas Longhorns were to win their last two games and qualify for the postseason -- even if Iowa State and Colorado fail to do so.

Sure, Texas is down this year, and you'd probably assume that with a 6-6 record only a lower-tier bowl would be in line to receive the Longhorns anyway, especially after losses to Iowa State, Kansas State and Baylor. But the major conferences allow the individual bowl games to choose their invitees according to a pre-determined order. The Big 12's order of selection looks like this (opponent conferences in parentheses):

1. BCS Tostitos Fiesta -- Glendale, Ariz.
2. AT&T Cotton (SEC) -- Arlington, Texas
3. Valero Alamo (Pac-10) -- San Antonio, Texas
4. Insight (Big Ten) -- Tempe, Ariz.
5. Bridgepoint Holiday (Pac-10) -- San Diego, Calif.
6. Texas (Big Ten) -- Houston, Texas
7. New Era Pinstripe (Big East) -- New York, N.Y.
8. TicketCity Bowl (Big Ten/ACC) -- Dallas, Texas

So let's say Texas and Texas Tech are the only remaining nonqualified teams to reach six wins. What's to stop, say, the Holiday Bowl from choosing the Longhorns? What, their fans don't travel? They do -- in hordes. They wouldn't draw an opponents' fan base? Nonsense. Every Pac 10 backer would relish an opportunity to take down the Longhorns, even if they're not that good. No, Texas would go to San Diego. The only thing that would keep them from doing so would be if the Alamo or Insight bowls were to select them first.

Such a selection would knock every other qualifying Big 12 team down one rung -- both in bowl stature and in the resulting payout. Ask Missouri -- it can and does happen. Even with only nine qualifiers, a bowl-eligible Texas means at least one other team is on the outside looking in with no agreement in hand. Who knows? Maybe Texas scores the upset and knocks off a higher-ranked bowl foe. But it's more likely that the Longhorns finish the year 6-7, having already cost Baylor -- a team that knocked off the Longhorns -- or a possibly 7-5 Texas Tech the chance at a larger prize. Heading into a 10-team league in 2011, this is the perfect opportunity for the rest of the conference to show that Texas is not the lone standard-bearer. But a high pick for the Longhorns would create a dangerous axiom: To the barely qualified with the largest fan base go the spoils.

Week 12

Oklahoma State (9-1, 5-1) at Kansas (3-7, 1-5) -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- The Pokes have a pretty simple route to the Big 12 Championship Game: win two. Kansas is first up, and the Jayhawks could be in for a long afternoon against this high-octane juggernaut offense. The second game comes next week against Oklahoma. Are the Cowboys peeking ahead? Not a wise idea against a team that scored 35 unanswered points in the final 11 minutes against Colorado two weeks again for a jaw-dropping comeback that got Dan Hawkins fired once and for all. But the Cowboys have shown the ability to absorb points and still come out on top. Kansas hasn't shown the ability to score points every week.

Kansas State (6-4, 3-4) at Colorado (4-6, 1-5) -- 1 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- Colorado's new interim coach, former player and longtime assistant Brian Cabral, picked up a win in his debut with this past Saturday's takedown of Iowa State. The Buffaloes showed a lot of fire on both sides of the ball as Rodney Stewart carried 36 times for 123 yards and the defense recorded eight sacks. This game could be a brawl between two very physical, hard-running teams. Colorado needs it to keep those bowl hopes alive, and K-State needs to make a statement to prospective bowl destinations, and to avoid a two-game slide to end conference play.

Weber State (FCS -- 6-4, 5-3) at Texas Tech (5-5, 3-5) -- 2 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- This is Tech's obligatory nonconfernce game versus an inferior opponent. The only difference is that this one's at the end of the season rather than the beginning like most teams. Though the Red Raiders shouldn't have any trouble with the Wildcats, I doubt very much that Tommy Tuberville wants to mess around with them. This could be a big game for Baron Batch on the ground -- he ran for 91 against the Sooners in last weekend's loss in Norman. But the passing game needs to get back on track quickly for Tech, as both Taylor  Potts and Steven Sheffield have been alarmingly inconsistent in pressure situations.

Florida Atlantic (4-5, 3-3) at Texas (4-6, 2-5) -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN Plus -- Texas has dropped four straight games at home for the first time since 1956's 1-9 team, which happened to be the worst in school history. This team's not THAT bad, but it's not pretty, either. The Longhorns need a confidence-builder here as they prepare for the regular-season finale against Texas A&M. But losing four in a row and six out of seven can create a damaged mind-set that's difficult to repair. And it's one that's likely to persist unless it can be repaired quickly with big plays all around. Look for Texas to come into this game amped up -- its season is literally on the line.

Missouri (8-2, 4-2) at Iowa State (5-6, 3-4) -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- Iowa State's hopes in this game took a big hit when QB Austen Arnaud went down in the fourth quarter against Colorado and was ultimately lost for the season. However, backup Jerome Tiller has seen some significant action in the past, having actually helmed the Cyclones' win in Lincoln last year.  He'll need every ounce of ability versus the Tigers, who absolutely took over in last weekend's showdown with Kansas State in Columbia to end their two-game slide. This is a big game for Blaine Gabbert, whose confidence was visibly down after losses on the road to Nebraska and Texas Tech. If he can regain some of that Oklahoma-game form, Mizzou could end Iowa State's season in short order.

Oklahoma (8-2, 4-2) at Baylor (7-4, 4-3) -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN 2 -- Half of an intriguing nightcap. Baylor's regular-season finale is an opportunity for the Bears to accomplish something they never have: beating Oklahoma. The Sooners hold a 19-0 all-time edge. The question here for each team is which team shows up. They both are capable of playing lights-out football, but they're both equally capable of watching an opponent take control, especially if that opponent happens to be Texas A&M. The Aggies shut out Oklahoma in the first half of a 33-19 win two weeks ago, then followed that up by shutting out the Bears in the second half of last week's 42-30 Aggie triumph. So who shows up to play? Oklahoma needs this win to force a de facto playoff with Oklahoma State in next weekend's Bedlam showdown. A loss coupled with a Pokes' win hands the Cowboys the South crown.

Nebraska (9-1, 5-1) at Texas A&M (7-3, 4-2) -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- The other half of the nightcap. (Why put the two best games on against each other, Dan Beebe?) Nebraska's undefeated on the road this season, but the Aggies are a hot team right now, and are positioning themselves for a very strong finish. Taylor Martinez is back under center for the Cornhuskers but looked less than impressive against Kansas in last weekend's 20-3 win. The Big Red will need him back in midseason form if they want to seize the momentum away from the 12th Man crowd at Kyle Field. And Ryan Tannehill has been virtually unstoppable at quarterback since coach Mike Sherman made the change by benching Jerrod Johnson. It was certainly a gamble on Sherman's part, but it's paid off so far.


Enjoy the weekend!

Thursday, November 4, 2010

First Look -- Week 10 (Saturday, Nov. 6)

Controlling Your Destiny

After last week's lengthy post on the conference standings at the midway point, I won't rehash a lot of the info included -- but please feel free to run through the remaining schedules listed there if you're so inclined.

However, it is worth noting at this point which teams still have a shot at making the Dec. 4 Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington's Cowboys Stadium without having to depend on the outcomes of other games. Some teams are certainly surprises this late in the season, and others were expected. First, let's take a look at the current standings:

BIG 12 STANDINGS
NORTH DIVISION
                         Big 12      All      
Nebraska           3-1          7-1      
Missouri             3-1          7-1      
Iowa State          3-2          5-4      
Kansas State     2-3          5-3      
Colorado            0-4          3-5      
Kansas              0-4          2-6   
     
SOUTH DIVISION
Baylor                   4-1         7-2      
Oklahoma            3-1         7-1      
Oklahoma State   3-1         7-1      
Texas A&M           2-2         5-3      
Texas                    2-3         4-4      
Texas Tech           2-4         4-4      


In the North -- Nebraska and Iowa State, alone, have the inside track to the Jerry Jones Dome. After this weekend, though, only one of these two teams will possess that advantage, since they meet in Ames on Saturday. Missouri is certainly still alive in the race and would benefit from any slip-up by the Big Red, and I'd put K-State in the "It would take a miracle" category.

In the South -- It's a similar race here as the top three teams -- Baylor, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State -- each have a path to the division title. Even more exciting, each of these teams must still play the other two in coming weeks, starting with Baylor's trip to Stillwater this Saturday. And believe it or not, Texas A&M is still very much alive in the race with two conference losses and upcoming contests against both Oklahoma (Saturday) and Baylor (Nov. 13), though the Aggies would need Oklahoma State to stumble.

Again, there are four Saturdays left, but it's always good to know what's on the line -- especially if you're still angling for that Baylor vs. Iowa State championship and its automatic BCS berth! Yep -- it's November, and I just said that. What a season it's been ...

Week 10

Baylor at Oklahoma State --11:30 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- The first of the South's deciding games should be as entertaining as it gets offensively. Both schools rank in the top 10 nationally in total yards and both like to sling the ball around. I'd say one advantage the Bears have is their defense, of all things. Baylor's given up 23.1 points per game, while the Pokes have yielded 28.5. But the game is in Stillwater, and Baylor is facing its second-consecutive road test. We'll discover right away whether Art Briles' team spent too much time celebrating its hard-fought win over Texas last week. The Cowboys also get WR Justin Blackmon back from suspension -- and they certainly missed him last week against Kansas State.

Colorado at Kansas -- 1 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- This may be the first time I concur that a game is better off not on TV. It could be ugly. It could also be KU's last chance at a conference win, though the Buffaloes are also winless in the Big 12. And ... well, there's not much else to say. This is a battle for the basement -- and a good reminder to test your smoke detectors there and elsewhere in the house ahead of the annual "fall back" to Standard Time from Daylight Saving Time early Sunday morning.

Nebraska at Iowa State -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- You wouldn't think to call this game the "deciding matchup" for the Big 12 North, but that's exactly what it is. The Cornhuskers roll into Ames for their last-ever meeting with the Cyclones as conference foes. Last year, Nebraska had more turnovers than points in a 9-7 loss in Lincoln that propelled Iowa State to a 6-6 record and a berth in the Insight Bowl (which it won against Minnesota). And State's QB Austen Arnaud and RB Alexander Robinson didn't even play in that game because of injury. Nebraska has been much more consistent -- and prolific -- on the road this season, but Iowa State has rejuvenated its season with back-to-back wins.

Oklahoma at Texas A&M -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- The Aggies walloped Texas Tech last week behind junior QB Ryan Tannehill, who got the start over senior Jerrod Johnson, who in turn was a dark horse Heisman candidate to begin the season, remember? Oklahoma pounced on A&M in the last meeting, building a 42-10 halftime lead with 28 unanswered points in the second quarter, and cruised to a 65-10 final score. This Sooners team, however, has been unable to close the door on most opponents. If Mike Sherman can keep his club within striking distance late in the game, the Aggies certainly have a shot to pull off the upset.

Texas at K-State -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN2 -- The Kansas State Wildcats are probably one of the last teams that Texas coach Mack Brown wants to see right now. Losers of four out of their last five ballgames, the Longhorns now face a 'Cats team that has beat them the last two times they've met and taken two out of three in Manhattan during Big 12 play. Talent-wise, Texas outmatches K-State at nearly every position, save running back. Brown essentially threw his coaches and players under the bus for being unprepared against Iowa State and Baylor, but a poor showing in this tough road game will fall squarely on his shoulders. 

Missouri at Texas Tech -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- Both losers last week, the Tigers and Red Raiders will get after it in Lubbock in this prime time tussle. Tommy Tuberville yanked QB Taylor Potts for Steven Sheffield last week in the A&M loss, so it'll be intriguing to see if Potts remains on a short leash in this start. Missouri needs a win here, of course, but the pressure of national title contention has been lifted from the players' minds, as well as from head coach Gary Pinkel. That should allow Mizzou to remain loose, and free to play its own game. But just as Nebraska pinned 24 points on the Tigers early, Tech is definitely capable of a similar ambush. And Jones AT&T Stadium can be an intimidating venue in the darkness of a West Texas night.

Enjoy the games!

Thursday, October 28, 2010

First Look -- Week 9 (Saturday, Oct. 30)

A Look at the Conference

We've more or less reached the midway point of the conference slate, so here's a look at how things stand headed into the final Saturday in October. This weekend's game will set the storylines for November -- when division titles are won.

The Standings
                                    Big 12             All
NORTH DIVISION
Missouri                        3-0                 7-0
Nebraska                      2-1                 6-1
Kansas State                2-2                 5-2
Iowa State                     2-2                 4-4
Colorado                       0-3                 3-4
Kansas                          0-3                 2-5

SOUTH DIVISION
Baylor                           3-1                  6-2
Oklahoma                    2-1                  6-1
Oklahoma State          2-1                  6-1
Texas                            2-2                  4-3
Texas Tech                   2-3                  4-3
Texas A&M                  1-2                   4-3



Remaining Schedules

BAYLOR
Oct. 30            at Texas
Nov. 6             at Oklahoma State
Nov. 13           Texas A&M
Nov. 20           Oklahoma

For those who've questioned if Baylor is for real, the next few weeks will settle the issue. Two of these games -- Texas and Texas A&M -- appear winnable at this moment, which in itself is a surprising statement, and one that few people would have even contemplated just a few weeks ago. And how about this: Next week's game in Stillwater will feature two of the nation's top five offenses (Oklahoma State #3; Baylor #5).


COLORADO
Oct. 30            at Oklahoma
Nov. 6             at Kansas
Nov. 13           Iowa State
Nov. 20           Kansas State
Nov. 26           at Nebraska

The Buffaloes need to win three out of these final five games to become bowl eligible. Anything's possible, of course, but it's looking more and more likely that Colorado will limp out of the Big 12 for the Pac-12. And without a bowl, head coach Dan Hawkins probably will be cut loose. Several people have commented that Colorado lacks the cash to buy Hawkins out of his contract, which runs through the 2012 season. It would cost the school about $1.7 million to do just that. However, Colorado's penalty for leaving the Big 12 was significantly less than the initial figures tossed around: $6.84 million as opposed to $12-$15 million. My gut tells me Colorado finds the cash and starts the next chapter of it program's history with a new author.


IOWA STATE
Oct. 30           Kansas
Nov. 6             Nebraska
Nov. 13           at Colorado
Nov. 20           Missouri

The Cyclones are coming off one of the biggest upsets in program history -- rivaling last year's shocker in Lincoln -- and need two victories to reach back-to-back bowl in coach Paul Rhoads' first two seasons. Remarkable. And it could happen with the Jayhawks and Buffaloes on the docket. I said a couple weeks back that this was a dangerous team because  players everywhere on the roster and the depth chart were finding ways to contribute. That they continued to do so after losing to Utah and Oklahoma by a combined 120-27 (including a 52-0 shutout to OU) is a testament to their faith in Rhoads.


KANSAS
Oct. 30            at Iowa State
Nov. 6             Colorado
Nov. 13           at Nebraska
Nov. 20           Oklahoma State
Nov. 27           Missouri (Kansas City)

And who do the Cyclones play next? A team that -- from the look of things -- does not share that same faith. The Jayhawks are floundering in Turner Gill's first season. And things have not been looking up. Quite the opposite, in fact. If there are winnable games on the Jayhawks' remaining schedule, it's the next two. But it could just as easily be an 0-5 finish, which would run Kansas' conference record in the last two seasons to 1-15. Gill will get time to turn things around, and he deserves it. That's not to say there haven't been legitimate questions about play-calling and situational management -- there have been some head-scratchers. But that's true of any team and any coach. If anything, the talent on hand when Gill arrived has been exposed. Last year's team was 1-7 in the Big 12 -- and the one was lucky. And the best parts of that team have moved on -- from the offense most noticeably. In league play, KU's fortunes shouldn't have been much of a surprise.


KANSAS STATE
Oct. 30           Oklahoma State
Nov. 6             Texas
Nov. 13           at Missouri
Nov. 20           at Colorado
Nov. 27           at North Texas

The Wildcats are clawing their way through the toughest part of their schedule. It's gut-check time in Manhattan, but K-State appears to be headed to a bowl if it can stay healthy and remain competitive. The next three contests, particularly, will test a defense that has at times been solid and at others has been as leaky as a diaperless toddler. Still, Kansas State could surprise some people down the stretch.


MISSOURI
Oct. 30            at Nebraska
Nov. 6             at Texas Tech
Nov. 13           Kansas State
Nov. 20           at Iowa State
Nov. 27           vs. Kansas (Kansas City)

All the pressure is on the Tigers this week. But it's how Gary Pinkel's team responds after this weekend's showdown with Nebraska that will determine the real legacy of the 2010 season. Sure, the last four games are against opponents with combined records of 6-10 in the Big 12 and 15-14 overall. But two are true road games, and the final game is on a neutral site against Mizzou's archrival, where the records really don't matter. All appear winnable at first glance, but the Tigers have to keep the even-keeled approach that has brought them to this point.


NEBRASKA
Oct. 30            Missouri
Nov. 6             at Iowa State
Nov. 13           Kansas
Nov. 20           at Texas A&M
Nov. 26           Colorado

If Missouri's under pressure, Nebraska is carrying the weight of the Big Red world. The Cornhuskers bounced back from the loss to Texas just in time to face Missouri in what amounts to a Big 12 North title game, although four tests remain in November. Like Missouri, Nebraska cannot afford a slip-up in the latter part of its schedule -- certainly not if it prevails this Saturday. And like Missouri, the schedule appears favorable. But if the past few years should have taught the Huskers anything, it's to not take anything for granted.


OKLAHOMA
Oct. 30            Colorado
Nov. 6             at Texas A&M
Nov. 13           Texas Tech
Nov. 20           at Baylor
Nov. 27           Oklahoma State

Despite the loss to Missouri, the Sooners still control their own destiny in the South with four games remaining against South opponents. The final three contests, in particular, stand out as crucial tests. It will be interesting to watch how Bob Stoops' team responds against a set of upstart programs that appear ready to challenge the status quo of Sooner/Longhorn dominance. This could be a preview of future contenders for the new-look Big 12.


OKLAHOMA STATE
Oct. 30            at Kansas State
Nov. 6             Baylor
Nov. 13           at Texas
Nov. 20           at Kansas
Nov. 27           Oklahoma

Things don't get any easier for the Cowboys. Like the other two one-loss teams in the South, the Pokes control their own destiny with the school's final chance at a Big 12 Championship Game berth on the line. Yeah, Oklahoma State fell to Nebraska, but they put up plenty of points against a very good defense. That they lost should serve as a challenge to their underachieving defense. It's at this point that the Cowboys can be like past Mike Gundy teams and fade in November, or once again this season smash expectations. Other than Baylor, this team has been the most surprising in the entire conference so far in 2010.


TEXAS
Oct. 30            Baylor
Nov. 6             at Kansas State
Nov. 13           Oklahoma State
Nov. 20           Florida Atlantic
Nov. 25           Texas A&M

After the Nebraska game, it appeared the Longhorns were somewhat back to form. The Iowa State loss undermined any of the accolades earned in Lincoln. What will this team do? I have no idea, do you? Like Ivan Drago in "Rocky IV," Texas has been cut and now appears very, very human. Four of the last five games are at home, where Texas Fight has gone 0-2 in its last two outings. This weekend is huge for the Burnt Orange.


TEXAS A&M
Oct. 30            Texas Tech
Nov. 6             Oklahoma
Nov. 13           at Baylor
Nov. 20           Nebraska
Nov. 25           at Texas

If there's a tougher schedule with five games to go, I'd like to see it. The Aggies were my surprise pick in the South. They've surprised me all right. Now there's every indication that head coach Mike Sherman plans to use a two-QB attack. At this point in the season, that has a look of desperation -- unless, of course, it works. It did against Kansas. But that's far from an airtight case. Sherman's seat is starting to get warm. My guess is that he's hoping positive signs from junior QB Ryan Tannehill keep his job secure as disappointment in the 2010 campaign mounts.


TEXAS TECH
Oct. 30            at Texas A&M
Nov. 6             Missouri
Nov. 13           at Oklahoma
Nov. 20           Weber State
Nov. 27           Houston

Thanks to some nifty scheduling, the Red Raiders appear capable of clinching bowl eligibility late in the season. It's hard to figure this team out. A loss to Iowa State and wins over Baylor and Colorado by a combined 10 points leave serious doubts about the way coach Tommy Tuberville has managed the most successful team in Big 12 history (Tech is the only Big 12 school to have a winning record in every season of the conference's existence). But those doubts have existed since he was hired -- especially in the minds of the Red Raider faithful. While they're used to seeing wide-open offenses and a rapid pace, Tuberville's mindset entails a more balanced attack. Once his system has taken hold and his players are in place we'll know more. But maintaining the winning culture in Lubbock is paramount for Tuberville's survival.


Week 9

Oklahoma State at Kansas State -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- The Cowboys will be without star WR Justin Blackmon, and the impact of his absence will be the game's biggest storyline. It must seem like deja vu for the Cowboys after last season's debacle with Dez Bryant. This might not be the only game Blackmon misses -- as there are still more questions the Big 12 and NCAA would like answered about the circumstances of Blackmon's troubles. The concern isn't so much about his driving infraction as about what he was doing out at 3:45 a.m., who he was with, and what he'd been doing prior to being pulled over. K-State could use a win here, and their offense has shown some spark in its last two games against Kansas and Baylor. If the Wildcats can transfer some of that aggression to the defense, they could put the Pokes in a tough spot.


Kansas at Iowa State -- 1 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- Iowa State missed a wide-open scoring opportunity late in the game last year in Lawrence, which gave the Jayhawks their lone conference win. This matchup has payback written all over it. Not to mention, Kansas enters the game with its third-string quarterback under center after injuries to starter Jordan Webb and backup Kale Pick. Iowa State is riding high after last week's upset of the Longhorns. Like many teams after a big win -- um, Texas -- the Cyclones must stay focused and execute to avoid a devastating letdown.


Texas Tech at Texas A&M -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- Tech and A&M. Though both are longshots at this point, the loser of this game is finished in the Big 12 South race, and the Aggies could be staring another losing season in the face. With that much on the line, it's a shame that only radio listeners and Internet box-score watchers will be able to share in the excitement.


Missouri at Nebraska -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- Another week, another potential classic. Last season the Cornhuskers erupted for 27 unanswered points in the fourth quarter en route to a 27-12 triumph in early October. Now comes a late-October showdown for the North lead and the driver's seat to the Big 12 Championship Game. The Tigers will need to turn it on once more -- as champions must. The balance of power in the Big 12 appears to have shifted northward -- at least for the moment. This game appears every bit as important as Oklahoma-Texas ... or as Missouri-Oklahoma did last weekend. Any more dropped touchdowns, and Nebraska risks dropping out of contention.


Baylor at Texas -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- Baylor hasn't beat Texas since 1997. And it hasn't beat Texas in Austin since 1991. But there are a lot of things that Baylor hasn't done in a long time that it's doing this year. A win here confirms the Bears' legitimacy, plain and simple. And it sets them up for even greater things down the road. But a loss would indicate a team that may have peaked too early. If coach Art Briles sold his team on bowl eligibility, Baylor's run may be near its end. If he preached championship, things have just begun.


Colorado at Oklahoma -- 8:15 p.m. CT Saturday on ESPN2 -- If Oklahoma is looking to get back on the right track, it has to be wary of a team that has absolutely nothing to lose. Cody Hawkins returns as the Buffaloes' starting quarterback after a season-ending injury to Tyler Hansen. Hawkins will put the ball in the air, but not always with accuracy. Colorado's fortunes lie with RB Rodney Stewart. If he can find space, it opens up many possibilities for the Buffs. If not, Hawkins will be forced to put it up. The Sooners' quickness on both sides of the ball should produce better results here than it did in Columbia.


Whew ... enjoy!

Thursday, October 21, 2010

First Look -- Week 8 (Saturday, Oct. 23)

The BCS Rankings

Whatever your opinion of the BCS (pause for reflection and/or grumbling), it's the system that exists -- and we're stuck with it for at least this season. There are loads of arguments against it, but we won't get into any of that here ... not at this point, anyway. For the time being, we'll deal with reality and choose to enjoy what I believe is the most exciting period in all of sports -- the college football regular season. However, the endgame remains the same for each and every team: a spot in the BCS. That's the payoff for all the offseason conditioning, the preseason training, the anticipation leading up to gameday and, finally, the weekly clashes on the gridiron. If you make it to the BCS, you've arrived among the elite -- oh, and the ACC and Big East champs will be there as well.
The Big 12 stacks up like this in the first BCS standings released Sunday:
1. Oklahoma
11. Missouri
14. Oklahoma State
16. Nebraska
19. Texas
22. Kansas State

So six teams. Not too shabby. Only the SEC has as many in this first poll, which you can view in its entirety here. Now what does it mean? Very little at this point. The calculations involved in this thing -- with two human polls and six computer rankings -- are so complex, that only Rainman and a select group of MIT and NASA scientists would be able to follow the math.

The Sooners, obviously, are sitting pretty. It's a little early to say they control their own destiny ... but they control their own destiny. For Oklahoma, keep winning and you're playing for a national championship. Of course, every opponent is now gunning for you, yet I'd wager most college football fans -- in the back of their minds and in the comfort of their own living rooms -- are glad that it's you and not Ohio State.

How about the other Big 12 teams. Well, this is purely speculation at this point, but Missouri and Oklahoma State also would fare well if their undefeated seasons were to continue. Both teams started the season unranked and  are now in the top 15 after just two conference games apiece. The kicker? They don't play each other in the regular season -- and would face each other in the Big 12 Championship. Ahhh, to dream. Now back to reality ...

Week 8

Iowa State at Texas -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- Speaking of dreaming ... the Cyclones are 0-7 all-time against the Longhorns, including all six meetings as members of the Big 12. Iowa State could start the upset by scoring points, which they failed to do at all in last week's 52-0 loss to Oklahoma. Texas essentially saved its season in Lincoln last week, but it wasn't because they looked particularly unbeatable.

Texas Tech at Colorado -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- If you don't mind listening to intermittent AM radio, tune it to 850 and see if you can pick up KOA. They've got a strong signal out of Denver. Last weekend I was able to listen in to the final plays of Baylor's win in Boulder while sitting on my couch, beer in hand -- and I'm 600 miles away. Again, this should be an interesting matchup. Tommy Tuberville called 38 rushing plays for the Red Raiders last week in the loss to Oklahoma State -- and Tech trailed the whole game. I wonder how they liked that little glimpse of the future in Lubbock.

Nebraska at Oklahoma State -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- The Cornhuskers travel to Stillwater knowing it could have been them in the No. 1 spot in the BCS. How will they react? Taylor Martinez will return as the starting QB, and its doubtful things could go more wrong for the freshman than they did against Texas. Oklahoma State, on the other hand is facing their toughest test so far. The Pokes' spread attack will square off against the nation's leading pass defense, which allows 117.0 yards passing per game. That number will probably go up Saturday, but by how much? Nebraska has Missouri next week, but this is no time to look ahead, especially when the Cowboys have taken three out of the last four, including the previous two games in Stillwater.

Kansas State at Baylor -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on your radio -- Fire up the grill on the driveway, wheel the cooler into the garage and turn up your boombox for this one. Baylor is one win away from bowl eligibility, and is facing its final Big 12 North opponent after knocking off both Kansas and Colorado. K-State bounced back from a loss to Nebraska by demolishing Kansas. This game will come down to who can stop the other team's stud -- the Bears' Robert Griffin and the Wildcats' Daniel Thomas.

Texas A&M at Kansas -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- It's homecoming in Lawrence, and the Jayhawks will need all the support they can get from a fanbase on edge after an 0-2 start in league play. Last week's embarrassing 59-7 loss to Kansas State rattled the Hawks, who are now looking at the remaining schedule in a desperate search for a winnable game. This could be about as good as it gets. As the season has worn on, that win against Georgia Tech in Week 2 has looked less like a signature victory and more like a fluke -- which is too bad, since it was one of the better nonconference victories for the Big 12. The Aggies have also dropped both of their conference matchups so far, and got a late touchdown in last week's 30-9 loss to Missouri to make it look a little better. Jerrod Johnson has passed for at least one touchdown in 24 straight games -- the longest current streak in the nation.

Oklahoma at Missouri -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- The nightcap, and it's a good one -- at least on paper and ESPN"s Gameday. These two undefeated teams will square off in a game that has exploded into national prominence.  The real question is this: Can the Tigers shake off a seven-game losing streak to the Sooners when it matters most? Six of those losses have come under head coach Gary Pinkel. Oklahoma is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Missouri has enough playmakers to make some noise, but the onus will be on Pinkel to have his team motivated to a level they have rarely reached. If he does, his defense could make things as tough for the Sooners' offensive triumvirate of QB Landry Jones, RB DeMarco Murray and WR Ryan Broyles as they did against Colorado and A&M -- teams Missouri beat by a combined score of 56-9. On the other side of the ball, Mizzou's offensive line will have to play its best game of the season and give Gabbert space to operate. The defenses are remarkably similar in a few noteworthy categories: Missouri leads the Big 12 in sacks (20) and Oklahoma is second (18); Oklahoma leads in tackles for loss (50) and Missouri is third (48); the Sooners are tops in turnover margin (+9) and the Tigers are third (+5).

One more thing to watch this weekend: This is the only week of the season when every team in the Big 12 meets an opponent from the other division -- the South hosts three, and the North hosts three. As of last weekend, the Big 12 South holds a 149-109 edge over the North.

Friday, October 15, 2010

First Look -- Week 7 (Saturday, Oct. 16)

Note to readers: So, yes, I know this post is a little late. I fully intended to write last night, but watching the thumping Kansas State put on Kansas in the Sunflower Showdown made me sleepy ... and sad.

Shaking Things Up

A couple weeks ago, I commented that it looked like an uphill battle for any Big 12 contender to reach the BCS National Championship Game without a lot of help. Well, last week, some of that help was delivered with South Carolina's upset of top-ranked Alabama. But have things changed for the Big 12 teams? Yes, they have. Quickly.

You can argue that Ohio State was the biggest beneficiary of the Tide's ouster from the No. 1 spot -- after all, the Buckeyes are the new No. 1 (at least, in the human polls they are). But I think it is Nebraska that benefited most from Alabama's defeat.

The Cornhuskers parlayed last Thursday's 48-13 victory over Kansas State on national television into a rapid ascension in the human polls. Nebraska vaulted TWO spots in both the AP and Coaches polls. In the AP, the Huskers vaulted Oklahoma to move from No. 7 to No. 5, and they vaulted TCU in the Coaches to move from No. 6 to No. 4 -- and even garnered a pair of No. 1 votes.

What does this tell us? That voters -- both in the media and among the coaches -- are watching Nebraska's season play out. We've already seen a reluctance on the part of some voters to move either Boise State or TCU into that No. 2 position. The human element still clearly favors the traditional BCS powerhouse conferences. Is that fair? Absolutely not, but it is reality. And it's Nebraska that now has the attention of the voters, not the front-runners from the WAC and the Mountain West. And, oh yeah, Nebraska just happens to play the biggest grudge match of the past 10 years tomorrow against the Longhorns in Lincoln. Wonder if the voters will be watching that ...

Oklahoma's not in a bad spot, either, even after getting jumped in the polls. The Sooners' schedule is an impressive one, and with Florida State and Air Force continuing to surge, those wins will be remembered far longer. Oklahoma and Nebraska are best friends now, each pulling for the other to continue on in the ranks of the unbeaten. That sets up an undefeated winner of the Big 12 championship making a strong argument for the BCS title.

What about the rest of the contenders? Well, I've talked about Boise and TCU in weeks past. There's still a lot of football left -- and the first BCS poll is due out Sunday. Only two undefeated SEC teams remain -- LSU and Auburn. I still think one of them goes to the BCS championship if it wins out -- there's just no way you leave a team out who has emerged unscathed from that gauntlet.

Back home in the Big 12, there are 42 games left to be played by Big 12 teams, and only four of those games involve a nonconference opponent. For the next six weeks, every Big 12 team will be in action without any byes. This is the stretch run. Enjoy!

Week 7

Kansas State  59     Kansas  7  -- Yep, that's what put me to sleep. The Jayhawks are firmly entrenched in the cellar of the Big 12. Even the 33 Chilean miners pity Kansas for the hole this team is trapped in. It's possible -- likely, even -- that they don't win another game this year. But at least be competitive ...  Thursday's loss was even more disturbing because it sure looked like that team in crimson and blue did not want to be there.


Missouri at Texas A&M -- 11 a.m. CT on FSN -- A BIG game for the Tigers. Missouri's won three out of four in this series, but is only 1-4 all-time in College Station. If the Aggies continue their turnover-plagued ways, it could cost them with a third-straight loss. But Missouri is a little banged up. Blaine Gabbert was roughed up against Colorado and DE Aldon Smith is still sidelined with injury. Expect A&M to play tough at Kyle Field -- they always do.

Texas at Nebraska -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- The Huskers have been waiting for this game since Texas kicker Hunter Lawrence slipped the game-winner through the uprights after one second was placed back on the clock to allow for the kick -- or because Colt McCoy's pass hit out of bounds with a second remaining on the previous play (whichever argument you prefer). Nebraska's definitely riding the momentum into this showdown, but they need to be careful. Texas is still Texas, which mean athletes, quickness and sound technique. Add to that the fact that Texas has never lost in Lincoln, and the Big Red should not chalk this one up until the final gun sounds.

Baylor at Colorado -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FCS -- Baylor is coming off a narrow loss to Tech, while the Buffaloes were shut out in Columbia by Mizzou. This is one of Baylor's must-wins if the Bears hope to go bowl-ing.

Iowa State at Oklahoma -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- Ouch, Cyclones. First a 68-27 beatdown by Utah, then a trip to Norman? Maybe there will be another earthquake -- under the Sooners' pre-game training table. But, hey, Oklahoma needs to start putting teams away in the fourth quarter, instead of letting them claw back to within striking distance. If not, some of those other SEC teams will be moving up at the Sooners' expense.

Oklahoma State at Tech -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on your radio if you live in West Texas or Eastern Oklahoma -- How in the name of Dan Beebe is this game not on TV? Somewhere? Cripes, put it on PBS -- but put it on! The home team has won the last eight in the series, and four out of the last five have been decided by a touchdown or less. Watch the crawl on ESPN for updates throughout the night.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

First Look -- Week 6 (Thursday, Oct. 7 & Saturday, Oct. 9)

Turned Upside-Down

Last week signaled the true start of the conference slate, though two games had already been played between league opponents. This coming weekend is actually rather light on head-to-head Big 12 action with just three matchups -- the other three are nonconference meetings. But with both Baylor and Iowa State back in action, we'll know more about the teams who pulled off two of the more surprising wins so far this season.

But we do know a couple of things already: 1) Parity has arrived in the Big 12; and 2) No one is safe, (which, I guess, is the definition of parity).

Iowa State 52  Texas Tech 38
Really? I mean, really? That's right. Not only did the Cyclones beat the Red Raiders, they did it twice! After building a 24-0 lead, Paul Rhoads' bunch gave it all back. The two teams then battled through the entirety of the fourth quarter, scoring 42 total points. So, what to make of it? Obviously, Tech and Tommy Tuberville underestimated their opponent, and failed to get up for the game out of the gate. Hard to fathom off a bye week, especially since this was the place from which Tuberville's Auburn replacement had come. More important, Rhoads WORKED for Tuberville at Auburn as his defensive coordinator in 2008 -- Tuberville's last season on the Plains -- a 5-7 campaign in which the defense withered as the fall wore on. How do you not have your squad ready to pound the guy who arguably cost you your dream job? Credit to the Red Raiders for making a game of it, and creating the opportunities that could have led to a road win.

But Iowa State overcame that and much more. The week before, Iowa State returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns. Last Saturday, when Tech had pulled within 7 with less than two minutes remaining, Iowa State DB Jeremy Reeves recovered the onside-kick attempt and returned it 42 yards for the game's final points. Those kinds of things -- defensive and special teams touchdowns -- are a sign of maximum effort from a team, and the hallmark of a dangerous opponent. It's doubtful that anyone overlooks the Cyclones again this season.

Baylor 55  Kansas 7
Another case of a perennial cellar-dweller catching a break on a lucky day? Not quite. It would be one thing if the Bears had beaten the Jayhawks in a close game, but this was a rump-kicking. Baylor led 27-7 at the half, and 48-7 after three quarters. Bears QB Robert Griffin is an absolute freak on the football field, and as strange as it may seem, this may have been the game that put him on the radar of most people. Baylor may be the most dangerous team in the conference, and it is purely because of Griffin at this point. He even makes the Bears' defense play better by association.

Watching this Baylor win definitely felt different than the Cyclones' thriller. There was simply no let up by Art Briles' crew. Granted, Kansas once again demonstrated its inconsistency, frustratingly so. But Baylor was dominant throughout. It was  a team-wide epiphany in Waco: "Not only can we play with these guys, we're BETTER than them!" That kind of mentality could make for an interesting (and historic) stretch run for the Bears.


Week 6

Nebraska at Kansas State -- 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN -- Here we go! The 'Cats and Cornhuskers square off for the final time in the foreseeable future. Nebraska's last outing on Sept. 25 against South Dakota State was an abysmal effort offensively (as indicated by the 17-3 score) -- the exact opposite of its pummeling of Washington. Which Big Red team will show up Thursday? Kansas State showed some spark against Central Florida when it turned to QB Carson Coffman after standout RB Daniel Thomas had been held in check for the most part. That was a much-needed confidence boost for Bill Snyder's team. We'll see how it carries over as both teams are coming off a bye week. The frenzied crowd in Manhattan will be tough to deal with unless they can be taken out of the game with big plays.

Oklahoma State at Louisiana-Lafayette -- 8 p.m. CT Friday on ESPN 2 -- The Cowboys are coming off a huge win last Thursday over Texas A&M. Time for a letdown? I wouldn't bet on it. Oklahoma State's new offense is built to score. The Ragin' Cajuns have been fortunate in their two wins so far. The Pokes' last true road game in Sun Belt territory was a 23-41 loss to Troy in 2007, which nearly derailed Mike Gundy's tenure in Stillwater. It's unlikely he lets his team repeat that mistake.

Baylor vs, Texas Tech -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday in the Cotton Bowl on FSN -- One of the Big 12 less-heralded rivalries, this matchup recently has been a good one, despite the fact that Tech has won the past 14, and now leads the overall series 35-32-1. The last two meetings have been 7-point wins for the Red Raiders. Could this be the turning point for Baylor? Whatever the outcome, these two are now bona fide rivals. The Big 12's new schedule released last week ensures that the Bears and Red Raiders will meet to close out the conference season every year.

Texas A&M vs. Arkansas -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday in Cowboys Stadium on ABC -- The Jerry Dome hosts the second edition of this renewed inter-conference rivalry dubbed "The Southwest Classic." Last season, Ryan Mallett and the Razorbacks demolished the Aggies 47-19. If A&M QB Jerrod Johnson turns it over five times like he did against Oklahoma State, it may be worse. But Arkansas is a heartbroken team after the loss against Alabama on Sept. 25 -- a game it should have had. If A&M can limit the mistakes and force Mallett into poor decisions like the ones he made late against the Crimson Tide, the Aggies could right their ship in a hurry.

Utah at Iowa State -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FCS -- Ummm ... who scheduled this one? The Cyclones get a big win against Texas Tech, only their second in the entire nine-game series and first since 2002 -- and this the reward? Ouch. As I said earlier, it's doubtful anyone overlooks Iowa State at this point, but maybe they don't get Fox College Sports in Salt Lake City. Note to future schedulers in Ames: Playing an out-of-conference Top 10 opponent in October can be difficult ... and unwise.

Colorado at Missouri -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- A great game to close down the Big 12 weekend. Missouri's won all four against Dan Hawkins. The Tigers have also taken the last three in Columbia. Colorado, though, showed some grit against Georgia. As I said last week, a win was imperative for Hawkins' survival , and he came through. Though I wouldn't put this game in the same category, a win would definitely help his case for remaining the head coach in Boulder after this season. This is a key game for Colorado QB Tyler Hansen. All eyes are now on him as the Buffs look for a leader capable of turning things around. While Missouri continues looking for answers in the running game, a new trio of offensive playmakers has emerged for Mizzou: QB Blaine Gabbert, WR T.J. Moe and TE Michael Egnew. Moe (9.25) and Egnew (8.25) each rank in the top 10 nationally in receptions per game.

Enjoy!

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

First Look -- Week 5 (Thursday, Sept. 30 & Saturday, Oct. 2)

Black Saturday?

Ominous clouds descended on Bill Snyder Family Stadium last week as seen in this photo from The Associated Press. The game was delayed for more than an hour, while a difficult nonconference weekend for Big 12 teams had doubters howling about the strength -- or lack of it -- of the Big 12 Conference.

Oklahoma struggles on the road, K-State squeaks one out at home in the closing seconds, Nebraska manages 17 points against a winless FCS opponent, Texas is pounded by laughably inconsistent UCLA ... is it time to write off the Big 12 from national championship relevance?

Actually, it might be. But not because of some close games and one head-scratching loss last weekend. The way the rankings sit in the fifth week, the Big 12 would need a lot of help to figure into any national championship discussion. There are several other FACT-ors that make it an uphill climb.

FACT: An defeated SEC team will play for the national championship. Not saying which one it will be, but if an SEC team emerges unscathed, it's simply a lock for one of the two spots because this has been the best conference in college football for the past few years, and each team's schedule is loaded with highly ranked opponents.

FACT: An undefeated Ohio State will play for the national championship. I simply hate writing that sentence, but it's true. Ranked second in the AP and Coaches polls, the Buckeyes would have to lose to be jumped because the Big Ten somehow maintains enough clout to make its champion appear like a true contender. Granted, Ohio State travels to Wisconsin (Oct. 16) and Iowa (Nov. 20), and hosts Penn State (Nov. 13) and Michigan (Nov. 27), but do any of these teams look ready to rise to the occasion and knock off Jim Tressel's squad. No -- not now anyway. But all four are ranked in the top 25 -- and Wisconsin tops the list at #11 (AP) and #9 (Coaches).

FACT: Oregon, Boise State and TCU are next in line if anyone stumbles. Here is where the polls really screw the Big 12. There's just nowhere to go with a logjam of undefeated teams at the top of the polls. And the kicker is, none of these three teams locked in at Nos. 3, 4 and 5 play each other to weed out the also-rans. And each arguably has just one strong opponent remaining on their schedule. Oregon plays Stanford (#9,#13) this weekend, Boise gets Nevada (#25, #25) on Nov. 26, and TCU meets Utah (#13, #12) on Nov. 6. Clear those games, and these schools immediately start lobbying for BCS berths. Texas losing last weekend is really painful here, because there's no longer that common opponent for either Nebraska or Oklahoma to use as a springboard if it's able to take out the Longhorns.

Of course, crazier things have happened, so you never know. Six Big 12 teams remain undefeated headed into this weekend (and Texas A&M and Oklahoma State will shorten that list to five). But for a Big 12 school to even get into the discussion now, others MUST lose. Welcome to Frustration, USA, pop: You.


Week 5

Texas A&M at Oklahoma State -- 6:30 p.m. CT Thursday -- ESPN. Holy cow, what a game this could be. Who's for real? Who's not? Do either of these teams play defense? All will be answered tonight.

Kansas at Baylor -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday -- FSN -- This is an intriguing undercard to the Red River Rivalry's main event. Baylor needs just three conference wins to qualify for it's first bowl since 1994 -- two seasons BEFORE it joined the Big 12. Actually, just winning three league games would be a milestone the Bears haven't reached since 2006. And Kansas? They're down, they're up, they're down -- then back up again. I wonder if Turner Gill and Co. feel as queasy on this ride as their fans. Any conference win is a big deal to these two programs, and I'd expect to see both fight hard for it.

Texas vs. Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday -- ABC -- Yeah, this game would mean a lot more if the 'Horns hadn't looked awful in the loss to UCLA. Mack Brown's run-first mantra for this season came back to bite him. Playing catch-up by running the ball is hard -- plain and simple. How did Garrett Gilbert get Texas back in the game against Alabama last year -- by running? No, you throw it to Jordan Shipley and get yourself ... er ... huh ... the Cincinnati Bengals now? Oh ... uh ... never mind. The fact that UCLA was the team to exploit this weakness was the shock, not the fact that Texas was exposed.

Texas Tech at Iowa State -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday -- FCS -- The Red Raiders are 7-1 all-time against the Cyclones. The strength of Paul Rhoads' Iowa State team, however, is really its pass defense. If they can capitalize on the Taylor Potts-Steven Sheffield dilemma facing Tommy Tuberville, maybe the Cyclones can hang around long enough to make this interesting. Texas Tech has also re-committed itself to the run after averaging a league-worst 70 yards per game, but we've yet to see leading rusher Baron Batch back to last year's form.

Georgia at Colorado -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday -- FSN -- FACT: (OK, not really, but it should be) If Dan Hawkins loses this game, he is out at Colorado effective at the end of the season. The Bulldogs are a mess on and off the field. Yeah, they need a win, but they need a designated driving workshop worse. If Hawkins loses, the Buffaloes can open their coaching search immediately -- and be first in line for prospective hires. Next year's Pac-12 schedule, whatever it ends up being, is a strong draw. (Mike Leach, anyone?) Pulling the trigger on Hawkins' firing would also give the coach a chance to play out the season and land more comfortably if he's able to piece together a decent conference showing. But 2-2 in nonconference just isn't good enough to justify keeping him any longer.

Big games also await next week as the conference slate kicks into high gear, including Nebraska at Kansas State on Thursday night in Manhattan ... for the last time.

Thursday, September 23, 2010

First Look -- Saturday, Sept. 25

Don't Let the Door Hit You ...

Taken at Big 12 Headquarters moments after reps from Nebraska and Colorado departed.

The Big 12 Conference settled with both Nebraska and Colorado on the penalties each school will pay for moving on to the Big Ten and Pac-10, respectively. For Nebraska the cost was $9.255 million, and Colorado will pay $6.863 million. The settlement avoids a lengthy legal process and allows all three conferences to move forward with what could certainly have been a messy divorce.

Some people have complained that the two schools got off relatively easy, especially since Big 12 commissioner Dan Beebe had suggested earlier that the league was looking for between $14 and $16 million apiece. But I'd say it's more of a "Don't go away mad, just go away" kind of situation. Cash-starved Colorado had already called Beebe's bluff by indicating it was prepared to stay until 2012 -- meaning the 2011 football season would move ahead with 11 teams. Clearly, the Big 12 had no interest in that -- and never did. For the Cornhuskers to get off at less than $10 million is certainly interesting. Why so low?

For starters, in any legal showdown Nebraska would have pointed directly to Colorado's decision to leave -- made before Nebraska's -- and the Pac-10 commissioner's subsequent whirlwind tour throughout the South Division as indicative of what was believed at the time to be the imminent collapse of the Big 12. "Why should we pay for looking out for our best interests in a crisis?" it would argue. Additionally, Nebraska would have argued that its departure, in fact, caused no damage because the conference stayed together -- and from all that Beebe himself has said, should actually make MORE money than before. A pretty good argument.

The Big 12, of course, had the agreed-upon bylaws outlined at the conference's founding on its side. But Nebraska and Colorado -- if pushed into a nasty legal wrangling -- would have almost certainly have subpoenaed and deposed anyone and everyone they could. On the list would be each of Big 12 presidents and athletic directors, Beebe and even Pac-10 commissioner Larry Scott (maybe the SEC commissioner as well) to reveal all of the options and decisions that were discussed and on the table behind the scenes at the time when these two schools decided to leave. This action would have pulled back the curtain on the Big 12's darkest hour. Again, the conference and Beebe had zero interest in this kind of scenario. Advantage: Nebraska and Colorado.

Sure, it would have been interesting to know exactly what the heck happened this past June, but I'm sure there will be a book or two down the road, and someone will make some dough that way. But I can't blame anyone in these circumstances for keeping their own secrets.

At this point, it's all speculation about what would have happened in an arbitration or a courtroom setting, with just one certainty: A bunch of lawyers would have made A LOT of money. So we've avoided all that. And isn't that just fine?


Week 4

Central Florida at Kansas State -- 11:30 a.m. CT Saturday -- FSN -- This game is actually pretty good on paper. The Knights should give the 'Cats some trouble, even in Manhattan. We can expect a strong dose of Daniel Thomas because, well, that's what K-State does well. It'll be smash-mouth football on that side of the ball. But Central Florida is a lot like a Fresno State -- they're not afraid to travel anywhere to play anyone. Bill Snyder's boys had better be ready for this one.

Miami (Ohio) at Missouri -- 1 p.m. CT Saturday -- No TV (Doh!) -- Mizzou fans have every right to be ticked that this one's a radio-only broadcast, especially when New Mexico State at Kansas gets coverage on FCS. It's enough to make you want to start talking about the Big Ten ... again. The Tigers dodged a major bullet last week against San Diego State against an underrated nonconference opponent. Here ,again, is an underrated nonconference opponent. The Redhawks gave the Florida Gators all they wanted in the season opener. I doubt Gary Pinkel will let his squad overlook this team. It would be good to see a running back finally step up for Missouri before the conference slate kicks in against Colorado on Oct. 9. But last week's hero T.J. Moe is beginning to lok like a star.

UCLA at Texas -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday -- ABC -- Texas battles the Bruins after subduing Texas Tech in prime time last weekend with a less-than-stellar offensive performance. The Longhorns are still a hard one to figure out, but they still could be playing possum in this matchup with Oklahoma looming next weekend. Talent-wise, Texas should be able to deal with UCLA without sacrificing too much of Mack Brown's playbook. But Rick Neuheisel's bunch learned an important lesson last weekend against Houston: Knock out the quarterback and things get a lot easier. More than likely, Texas' offensive line received a reminder of this principle during practice this week.

Oklahoma at Cincinnati -- 5 p.m. CT Saturday -- ESPN2 -- At the beginning of the season, this was certainly a marquee matchup. But Cincinnati's early implosion ( a 1-2 record with losses to Fresno State and N.C. State) has already dulled the luster. It'll be harder for the Sooners to get caught looking ahead to Texas since this game is on the road at Paul Brown Stadium, home of the NFL's Bengals. But Oklahoma has definitely struggled in games in which it should have rolled. Bob Stoops' crew needs performance more like that against Florida State than Utah State or Air Force. Otherwise, the Sooners head to the Cotton Bowl with serious questions.

New Mexico State at Kansas -- 6 p.m. Saturday -- FCS -- Just what the doctor ordered for Turner Gill & Co. The Aggies are pretty bad. And Kansas needs to work on A LOT before opening its Big 12 schedule at Baylor next weekend. This is a confidence-builder if things go well -- as they should. If it turns into any kind of close game, the 2010 campaign looks incredibly long for the Jayhawks.

South Dakota State at Nebraska -- 6 p.m. Saturday -- FSN PPV -- Oh my. After throttling Washington last week, this is the Cornhuskers' reward. Anything less than a 40- or 50-point win could probably cost Nebraska a spot in the poll. Even if everyone plays, this shouldn't be a problem. Bonus point: where is South Dakota State located? If you said Brookings -- you either looked it up or you're a liar.

 Northern Iowa at Iowa State -- 6 p.m. Saturday -- No TV -- After losing two in a row, the Cyclones het another in-state rival, albeit from the FCS. Here again, Iowa State had better be prepared and focused, because the Panthers are simply not intimidated by their bigger bretheren -- see Iowa game last season. Things simply will not get any less difficult in Ames than this game -- Texas Tech, Utah, Oklahoma and Texas are the next four opponents for Paul Rhoads' team. Yowsa.

Baylor at Rice -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday -- CBS College Sports -- An absolute must-win for the Bears. After last weekend's destruction by TCU, Baylor has a chance to get back on track in pursuit of a bowl bid. Rice offers nothing particularly spectacular, but the Owls will fight hard for yards and for respect. This will be a good opportunity for Art Briles and Robert Griffin to prove that the Bears have moved forward with their program -- convincing both players and fans alike that Baylor is on the cusp of something unfamiliar: success.

Enjoy!