Thursday, October 21, 2010

First Look -- Week 8 (Saturday, Oct. 23)

The BCS Rankings

Whatever your opinion of the BCS (pause for reflection and/or grumbling), it's the system that exists -- and we're stuck with it for at least this season. There are loads of arguments against it, but we won't get into any of that here ... not at this point, anyway. For the time being, we'll deal with reality and choose to enjoy what I believe is the most exciting period in all of sports -- the college football regular season. However, the endgame remains the same for each and every team: a spot in the BCS. That's the payoff for all the offseason conditioning, the preseason training, the anticipation leading up to gameday and, finally, the weekly clashes on the gridiron. If you make it to the BCS, you've arrived among the elite -- oh, and the ACC and Big East champs will be there as well.
The Big 12 stacks up like this in the first BCS standings released Sunday:
1. Oklahoma
11. Missouri
14. Oklahoma State
16. Nebraska
19. Texas
22. Kansas State

So six teams. Not too shabby. Only the SEC has as many in this first poll, which you can view in its entirety here. Now what does it mean? Very little at this point. The calculations involved in this thing -- with two human polls and six computer rankings -- are so complex, that only Rainman and a select group of MIT and NASA scientists would be able to follow the math.

The Sooners, obviously, are sitting pretty. It's a little early to say they control their own destiny ... but they control their own destiny. For Oklahoma, keep winning and you're playing for a national championship. Of course, every opponent is now gunning for you, yet I'd wager most college football fans -- in the back of their minds and in the comfort of their own living rooms -- are glad that it's you and not Ohio State.

How about the other Big 12 teams. Well, this is purely speculation at this point, but Missouri and Oklahoma State also would fare well if their undefeated seasons were to continue. Both teams started the season unranked and  are now in the top 15 after just two conference games apiece. The kicker? They don't play each other in the regular season -- and would face each other in the Big 12 Championship. Ahhh, to dream. Now back to reality ...

Week 8

Iowa State at Texas -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- Speaking of dreaming ... the Cyclones are 0-7 all-time against the Longhorns, including all six meetings as members of the Big 12. Iowa State could start the upset by scoring points, which they failed to do at all in last week's 52-0 loss to Oklahoma. Texas essentially saved its season in Lincoln last week, but it wasn't because they looked particularly unbeatable.

Texas Tech at Colorado -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on the radio -- If you don't mind listening to intermittent AM radio, tune it to 850 and see if you can pick up KOA. They've got a strong signal out of Denver. Last weekend I was able to listen in to the final plays of Baylor's win in Boulder while sitting on my couch, beer in hand -- and I'm 600 miles away. Again, this should be an interesting matchup. Tommy Tuberville called 38 rushing plays for the Red Raiders last week in the loss to Oklahoma State -- and Tech trailed the whole game. I wonder how they liked that little glimpse of the future in Lubbock.

Nebraska at Oklahoma State -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- The Cornhuskers travel to Stillwater knowing it could have been them in the No. 1 spot in the BCS. How will they react? Taylor Martinez will return as the starting QB, and its doubtful things could go more wrong for the freshman than they did against Texas. Oklahoma State, on the other hand is facing their toughest test so far. The Pokes' spread attack will square off against the nation's leading pass defense, which allows 117.0 yards passing per game. That number will probably go up Saturday, but by how much? Nebraska has Missouri next week, but this is no time to look ahead, especially when the Cowboys have taken three out of the last four, including the previous two games in Stillwater.

Kansas State at Baylor -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday on your radio -- Fire up the grill on the driveway, wheel the cooler into the garage and turn up your boombox for this one. Baylor is one win away from bowl eligibility, and is facing its final Big 12 North opponent after knocking off both Kansas and Colorado. K-State bounced back from a loss to Nebraska by demolishing Kansas. This game will come down to who can stop the other team's stud -- the Bears' Robert Griffin and the Wildcats' Daniel Thomas.

Texas A&M at Kansas -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday on FSN -- It's homecoming in Lawrence, and the Jayhawks will need all the support they can get from a fanbase on edge after an 0-2 start in league play. Last week's embarrassing 59-7 loss to Kansas State rattled the Hawks, who are now looking at the remaining schedule in a desperate search for a winnable game. This could be about as good as it gets. As the season has worn on, that win against Georgia Tech in Week 2 has looked less like a signature victory and more like a fluke -- which is too bad, since it was one of the better nonconference victories for the Big 12. The Aggies have also dropped both of their conference matchups so far, and got a late touchdown in last week's 30-9 loss to Missouri to make it look a little better. Jerrod Johnson has passed for at least one touchdown in 24 straight games -- the longest current streak in the nation.

Oklahoma at Missouri -- 7 p.m. CT Saturday on ABC -- The nightcap, and it's a good one -- at least on paper and ESPN"s Gameday. These two undefeated teams will square off in a game that has exploded into national prominence.  The real question is this: Can the Tigers shake off a seven-game losing streak to the Sooners when it matters most? Six of those losses have come under head coach Gary Pinkel. Oklahoma is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Missouri has enough playmakers to make some noise, but the onus will be on Pinkel to have his team motivated to a level they have rarely reached. If he does, his defense could make things as tough for the Sooners' offensive triumvirate of QB Landry Jones, RB DeMarco Murray and WR Ryan Broyles as they did against Colorado and A&M -- teams Missouri beat by a combined score of 56-9. On the other side of the ball, Mizzou's offensive line will have to play its best game of the season and give Gabbert space to operate. The defenses are remarkably similar in a few noteworthy categories: Missouri leads the Big 12 in sacks (20) and Oklahoma is second (18); Oklahoma leads in tackles for loss (50) and Missouri is third (48); the Sooners are tops in turnover margin (+9) and the Tigers are third (+5).

One more thing to watch this weekend: This is the only week of the season when every team in the Big 12 meets an opponent from the other division -- the South hosts three, and the North hosts three. As of last weekend, the Big 12 South holds a 149-109 edge over the North.

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