First Look -- Week 5 (Thursday, Sept. 30 & Saturday, Oct. 2)

Black Saturday?

Ominous clouds descended on Bill Snyder Family Stadium last week as seen in this photo from The Associated Press. The game was delayed for more than an hour, while a difficult nonconference weekend for Big 12 teams had doubters howling about the strength -- or lack of it -- of the Big 12 Conference.

Oklahoma struggles on the road, K-State squeaks one out at home in the closing seconds, Nebraska manages 17 points against a winless FCS opponent, Texas is pounded by laughably inconsistent UCLA ... is it time to write off the Big 12 from national championship relevance?

Actually, it might be. But not because of some close games and one head-scratching loss last weekend. The way the rankings sit in the fifth week, the Big 12 would need a lot of help to figure into any national championship discussion. There are several other FACT-ors that make it an uphill climb.

FACT: An defeated SEC team will play for the national championship. Not saying which one it will be, but if an SEC team emerges unscathed, it's simply a lock for one of the two spots because this has been the best conference in college football for the past few years, and each team's schedule is loaded with highly ranked opponents.

FACT: An undefeated Ohio State will play for the national championship. I simply hate writing that sentence, but it's true. Ranked second in the AP and Coaches polls, the Buckeyes would have to lose to be jumped because the Big Ten somehow maintains enough clout to make its champion appear like a true contender. Granted, Ohio State travels to Wisconsin (Oct. 16) and Iowa (Nov. 20), and hosts Penn State (Nov. 13) and Michigan (Nov. 27), but do any of these teams look ready to rise to the occasion and knock off Jim Tressel's squad. No -- not now anyway. But all four are ranked in the top 25 -- and Wisconsin tops the list at #11 (AP) and #9 (Coaches).

FACT: Oregon, Boise State and TCU are next in line if anyone stumbles. Here is where the polls really screw the Big 12. There's just nowhere to go with a logjam of undefeated teams at the top of the polls. And the kicker is, none of these three teams locked in at Nos. 3, 4 and 5 play each other to weed out the also-rans. And each arguably has just one strong opponent remaining on their schedule. Oregon plays Stanford (#9,#13) this weekend, Boise gets Nevada (#25, #25) on Nov. 26, and TCU meets Utah (#13, #12) on Nov. 6. Clear those games, and these schools immediately start lobbying for BCS berths. Texas losing last weekend is really painful here, because there's no longer that common opponent for either Nebraska or Oklahoma to use as a springboard if it's able to take out the Longhorns.

Of course, crazier things have happened, so you never know. Six Big 12 teams remain undefeated headed into this weekend (and Texas A&M and Oklahoma State will shorten that list to five). But for a Big 12 school to even get into the discussion now, others MUST lose. Welcome to Frustration, USA, pop: You.


Week 5

Texas A&M at Oklahoma State -- 6:30 p.m. CT Thursday -- ESPN. Holy cow, what a game this could be. Who's for real? Who's not? Do either of these teams play defense? All will be answered tonight.

Kansas at Baylor -- 11 a.m. CT Saturday -- FSN -- This is an intriguing undercard to the Red River Rivalry's main event. Baylor needs just three conference wins to qualify for it's first bowl since 1994 -- two seasons BEFORE it joined the Big 12. Actually, just winning three league games would be a milestone the Bears haven't reached since 2006. And Kansas? They're down, they're up, they're down -- then back up again. I wonder if Turner Gill and Co. feel as queasy on this ride as their fans. Any conference win is a big deal to these two programs, and I'd expect to see both fight hard for it.

Texas vs. Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl -- 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday -- ABC -- Yeah, this game would mean a lot more if the 'Horns hadn't looked awful in the loss to UCLA. Mack Brown's run-first mantra for this season came back to bite him. Playing catch-up by running the ball is hard -- plain and simple. How did Garrett Gilbert get Texas back in the game against Alabama last year -- by running? No, you throw it to Jordan Shipley and get yourself ... er ... huh ... the Cincinnati Bengals now? Oh ... uh ... never mind. The fact that UCLA was the team to exploit this weakness was the shock, not the fact that Texas was exposed.

Texas Tech at Iowa State -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday -- FCS -- The Red Raiders are 7-1 all-time against the Cyclones. The strength of Paul Rhoads' Iowa State team, however, is really its pass defense. If they can capitalize on the Taylor Potts-Steven Sheffield dilemma facing Tommy Tuberville, maybe the Cyclones can hang around long enough to make this interesting. Texas Tech has also re-committed itself to the run after averaging a league-worst 70 yards per game, but we've yet to see leading rusher Baron Batch back to last year's form.

Georgia at Colorado -- 6 p.m. CT Saturday -- FSN -- FACT: (OK, not really, but it should be) If Dan Hawkins loses this game, he is out at Colorado effective at the end of the season. The Bulldogs are a mess on and off the field. Yeah, they need a win, but they need a designated driving workshop worse. If Hawkins loses, the Buffaloes can open their coaching search immediately -- and be first in line for prospective hires. Next year's Pac-12 schedule, whatever it ends up being, is a strong draw. (Mike Leach, anyone?) Pulling the trigger on Hawkins' firing would also give the coach a chance to play out the season and land more comfortably if he's able to piece together a decent conference showing. But 2-2 in nonconference just isn't good enough to justify keeping him any longer.

Big games also await next week as the conference slate kicks into high gear, including Nebraska at Kansas State on Thursday night in Manhattan ... for the last time.